Showing posts with label College Football predictions. Show all posts
Showing posts with label College Football predictions. Show all posts

Friday, November 9, 2012

College Football Kickoff (Week 11)

Games of the Week

#15 Texas A&M Aggies (7-2) at #1 Alabama Crimson Tide (9-0)
This is a big game for both teams.  A&M is coming off a big win at Starkville and looking to show everybody they are a player in the SEC.  What better way then to knock off the Tide.  In Alabama's case, a win here would clinch their spot in the SEC Championship game and help pave teh way for an undefeated season.  The battle to watch is to see how QB Johnny Manziel does against the fierce Crimson Tide defense.  If Manziel can eliminate turnovers that hurt him against LSU the Aggie offense can put up points.  But you have to wonder what blitzes and schemes Saban will use to confuse the freshman signal caller.  A&M is also going to have to try and get to AJ McCarron while slowing down the power rushing attack.
Prediction:  A&M 13  Alabama 31


#4 Kansas State Wildcats (9-0) at TCU Horned Frogs (6-3)The big story line of this game is the health of KState QB Collin Klein.  Klein suffered some form of a concussion in last weeks game and his status is uncertain.  If Klein can't go, this game is a toss up.  Sure KState has RB John Hubert and some other weapons, but they aren't the same without the Heisman Front runner.  If Klein plays the Wildcats aren't a guaranteed winner.  TCU has a ton of talent and before QB Casey Pachall left the team they were a regular in the Power Rankings.  TCU also has a strong defense that will give the Wildcat offense fits.  Add in that TCU HC Gary Patterson is a KState alumn, they have extra motivation on their side.
Prediction:  KState 38  TCU 20


#23 Mississippi State Bulldogs (7-2) at #9 LSU Tigers (7-2)
Both of these teams are coming off losses and hoping to get back on track.  Mississippi State is on a two game losing streak and looking to show the nation that they didn't jump out to a 7-0 record only because they played crappy teams.  LSU is looking to avoid a 3 loss season and keep their chances of getting to a BCS Bowl.  Miss State got gashed last week by Texas A&M and they need to shore up some holes to prevent the LSU offense from exploiting them too.  QB Zach Mettenberger is coming off his best game of the year and the Tigers could really use him to have another one.  If he can do that the Tigers should roll with a victory.  It will also be interesting to see how Miss State QB Tyler Russell does with the talented LSU defensive line.  He did have issues last week against the Aggies.  Don't look for this one to be that close.
Prediction:  Miss State 6  LSU 24


#14 Oregon State Beavers (7-1) at #16 Stanford Cardinal (7-2)
Although neither of these teams will probably go to the Pac 12 Title game, this is a huge game for both teams.  The winner of this game could realistically make it to the Rose Bowl if Oregon stays undefeated.  The problem is avoiding having 3 losses.  Because you can't qualify for the BCS if you have three losses.  Both teams will bring good defenses to the game.  Stanford's physical defense will look to stop the passing attack of Oregon, while Oregon State's defense will have to deal with the power running of Stepfan Taylor.  The winner will likely be the team whose offense makes the fewest mistakes.  This game is also a battle of backup QBs as Cody Vaz took over for Sean Mannion when he got hurt and Kevin Hogan took over for Josh Nunes who has struggled to replace Andrew Luck.
Prediction:  Oregon State 17  Stanford 14


Penn State Nittany Lions (6-3) at #17 Nebraska Cornhuskers (7-2)
This game isn't getting a lot of nation hype, but it is still a very good game against two quality teams.  Penn State was the talk of college football for their 5 game winning streak, but are all forgotten about now.  All they did was lose to a good Ohio State team.  Nebraska in on a three game winning streak with two of those games had them coming from a double digit deficit.  Nebraska is in the drivers seat in the Big 10 Legends Division, but need to win out to control their own destiny.  But this will be tough against a physical Penn State defense that will look to slow down QB Taylor Martinez and the Husker rushing attack.  Penn State QB Matt McGloin has had a good season and is throwing the ball all over the field.  He'll test the blackshirt defense.  But HC Bo Pelini has a ton of success against immobile QBs and McGloin is your prototypical pocket QB.  This should be a fun game to watch.
Prediction:  Penn State 17  Nebraska 24

Coaching Hot Seat

Derek Dooley
Record at Tennessee:  32-39
Bowl Appearances:  1
When Lane Kiffin left Tennesse after only serving one year on the job the administration chose to go in a different direction hiring Louisiana Tech Head Coach Derek Dooley.  The decision to hire Dooley was a cause for concern because he wasn't a hot coaching name and his 17-20 record at LaTech wasn't very good.  Heck he was 4-8 in his last year.  Not too impressive of a record coming into the premier college football conference.  You have to wonder if the AD hired Dooley with the thought he wouldn't leave for the next best job.

As many expected, things haven't gone very well for Dooley.  His first year was his best.  He ended with a 6-7 record and made it to the Music City Bowl.  In year two they finished with only 5 wins and only won one SEC game.  His hot seat was getting pretty warm in year 2.

This year looked like it could go pretty well.  The Vols entered the season with a ton of talent on the offensive with QB Tyler Bray and WRs Justin Hunter, Da'Rick Rodgers, and Cordalle Patterson.  However Rodgers was kicked off the team.  Tennessee started the season with a big win over NC State, but once SEC conference play started the wheels fell off.  They lost a 2nd half lead to Florida, lost by less than 10 points to Georgia, Miss State, and South Carolina but all of them are losses.  They haven't won a game in the SEC yet and almost lost to Troy.  The Vols only have 3 wins on the season and have to beat Missouri, Kentucky, and Vanderbilt just to be bowl eligible.

It doesn't look very good for Dooley.  Even if he wins out the rest of the year, the SEC is an impatient league and they'll likely be looking for a new coach.  The hot name is John Gruden who was a former GA at Tennessee and married a Tennessee alumn.  However Gruden is the hottest coaching name out there and will probably go for a better job.  Even with being in the SEC and having some tradition.  It's hard to recruit to Tennessee and that could scare some coaches off.  It will be interesting to see what they do.  The fan base wants more, but they might not get it.

What happened to....

Iowa Hawkeyes
Going into this season the expectations for the Iowa Hawkeyes weren't great.  They were not favored to win their division and getting to 8 wins was seen to be their ceiling.  Heck some places even predicted them to be the second worse team in their division.  So why are they here?

If you remember back to the 2009 season the Hawkeyes finished with an 11-2 record and a win over Georgia Tech in the Orange Bowl.  Although not a super power the Hawkeyes have a history of competing for the Big 10 Title and regularly posting 9 win seasons.  However the Hawkeyes won 7 games in both 2010 and 2011.  This year Iowa has only 4 wins on the season with three remaining.  That means they'll have to beat Purdue and then either Michigan or Nebraska just to be bowl eligible.  That's a long ways from this team winning a BCS game three years ago. 

One of the biggest reasons the Hawkeyes have struggled is their offense.  They have always put out good offensive lines, but the skill positions haven't had the same impact that they did in previous years.  The running back position has been a mess.  Since the 2009 season the Hawkeyes have had a revolving door at RB.  Marcus Coker was a stud in 2011 but left the team.  This year their star is former Air Force FB Mark Wiseman.  But even he has missed games because of injuries.  Iowa fans have focused their criticism on former OC Norm Parker for his conservative style.  Parker retired and the Hawkeyes hired former Texas OC Greg Davis.  Davis was known for his spread offenses, but the Hawkeyes have continued to run the same style of offense that Parker did. 

Don't look for HC Kirk Ferentz to be on the hot seat.  He's owed over $20 million dollars on his contract and the University isn't ready to buy that out.  But some changes need to happen or the Hawkeyes could go from being on a bad stretch to being a forgotten program.

How about....

Indiana Hoosiers
When you think of successful Indiana programs your first reaction is going to be towards their basketball program.  Not the football one.  But with the season that the Hoosier Football team is having, people do have to take noticed.

Last year Kevin Wilson took over a program that hasn't had hardly any success.    Wilson came from Oklahoma where he was the OC and a big part of some high powered offenses.  Wilson also won the Broyles Award for top assistant coach in the nation.  His first season was rocky at best.  He finished with a 1-11 record and was more famous for his exchange with Fox Radio hosts "Zach and Jack."  At one point Wilson had secured a commitment from top QB prospect Gunner Kiel, but Kiel later decommitted and ended up going to Notre Dame.

It was safe to say that the second year of Wilson's tenure wasn't very highly anticipated.  But this year has not only exceeded expectations, but blew them out.  Indiana has 4 wins so far and 2 of them are in conference.  Because Penn State and Ohio State cannot compete in the Big 10 Title Game the Hoosiers are tied with Wisconsin for the lead in the Leaders Division.  Indiana's offense has also taken a big jump this year.  They are currently 3rd in the Big 10 in total offense and 1st in passing yards per game.  Add in that the Hoosiers have 3 four star commitments and the future looks good for this once doormat program.



Player Spotlight

William Gholston
Height:  6'6
Weight:  280
School:  Michigan State
Year:  JR
Position:  Defensive End

Going into the season there were some high hopes for Gholston.  He had the frame and physical skills to be a dominant defensive end.  He is your prototypical get off the bus first player.  He looks the part.  As a sophomore he was inconsistent and had the tendency to disappear at times.  Going into his junior year many were looking to see Gholston become more consistent and dominate more.
So far as a junior it's been too much the same as last year.  At times he's looked as a top 5 pick, then the next game he disappears and you forget he is on the field. Gholston does a great job taking on blockers and still being able to make plays.  With skills like this he'd be a good fit as a LDE in a 4-3 defense, but he could also fit well as a 5-technique defensive end in a 3-4 defense.  Teams could use him a lot like Arizona does with Calias Campbell.  Gholston might be better off staying at Michigan State for his senior year, but he does come out some team in the 2nd round will likely pull the trigger on him.

Friday, November 2, 2012

College Football Kickoff (Week 10)

Games of the Week

#1 Alabama Crimson Tide (8-0) at #5 LSU Tigers (7-1)
This years game doesn't have the same feel as last year, but that was because LSU was also undefeated, instead of having one loss.  But the stakes are still the same.  Winner of this game "should" win the West and move on to the SEC Title Game.  Alabama so far has been the clear cut #1 team in the nation and hasn't really had a close game.  But the have to travel to Death Valley at night which is never easy.  If LSU wants to get the win here they are going to need a HUGE game from QB Zach Mettenberger.  They'll need him to make plays, not just manage to offense.  Defensively the Tigers can slow the Alabama offense but unless the defense can make some plays to put points on the board it could be a long night.
Prediction:  Alabama 20  LSU 10


Oklahoma State Cowboys (5-2) at #4 Kansas State Wildcats (8-0)
Oklahoma isn't ranked, but they are right on the cusp of the top 25.  They're looking to make a mark on the season and end Kansas State's magical season.  But if they are going to, they'll need to score a lot of points against a Wildcat defense that held West Virginia to 14 and Oklahoma to 19.  Defensively they'll have to make some plays because KState looks to wear defenses down with QB Collin Klein and RB John Hubert.  If Oklahoma State wants to win they'll have to get early 3 and outs to keep their guys fresh.  But that's easier said than down.  Just ask Oklahoma and West Virginia.
Prediction:  Oklahoma State 16  Kansas State 45


#2 Oregon Ducks (8-0) at #16 USC Trojans (6-2)
A week ago this game had more hype around it.  But that was before the Trojans dropped a game to Arizona to give them their second loss on the season.  You have to wonder how USC is going to handle Oregon's offense considering they struggled against an Arizona attack that isn't as good.  USC has struggled to stop the run and that is what the Ducks will do to you.  Add in that USC doesn't have a lot of depth along the defensive line and that could be a disaster keeping up with the Oregon fast paced attack.  But will Oregon's improved defense be able to slow down the USC receivers and running backs?  Oregon is favored to win on paper, but USC is out to prove that they are better tahn their record indicates.  Don't be surprised if you see an upset.
Prediction:  Oregon 49  USC 27


#19 Texas A&M Aggies (6-2) at #15 Mississippi State Bulldogs (7-1)
The big match up in the SEC West is in Baton Rouge, but this game in Starkville is just as important.  In this battle of surprise teams, the winner still has an outside shot at the West Division crown.  But they'll need some help to do so.  It will be fun to watch A&M's high powered offense match up with the veteran Miss State defense.  As we've seen so far, A&M will go as far as QB Johnny Manziel will take them.  In the games they've lost he's taken care of the ball and made plays.  When they lose it's because he has turned the ball over.  Miss State also hasn't face an offense that is as good as Texas A&M all year.
Prediction:  Texas A&M  31 Mississippi State  24

#21 Texas Longhorns at #23 Texas Tech Red Raiders
The last time that Texas and Texas Tech had a huge game against each other we got an amazing game with Michael Crabtree hauling in a TD pass in the closing seconds to give the Red Raiders the victory.  Will this game against top 25 teams yield the same results?  I don't know, but this game will still be intriguing and a battle to move into the 3rd spot behind Kansas State and Oklahoma.  Just when Texas QB David Ash started to really play well, he took a step back.  Is he going to be able to get it back against an improved Red Raider defense?  Will the Texas defense be able to slow down Tech's offense enough to give their offense a chance?
Prediction:  Texas 20  Texas Tech 34


Coaching Hot Seat

Gene Chizik
Record at Auburn:  31-17
Bowl Appearances:  3
To say that Gene Chizik's tenure at Auburn has been a roller coaster is an understatement.  Fans were unhappy that Auburn hired Chizik who had a 5-19 record at Iowa State prior to him coming to Auburn.  Many felt that there were better coaches out there and Chizik hadn't proved that he's worthy of this level of a job.  They felt that Turner Gill (former Buffalo HC) was more qualified and a better choice. 

Chizik answered a lot of critics with a National Championship season in his second year.  Lead by Heisman Trophy winning QB Cam Newton the Tigers went undefeated and winning a lot of close games in route to beating Oregon in the National Championship Game.  So it's hard to imagine how a coach who won a National Championship two years ago can already be on the hot seat.

It was year three where things started to slide.  Auburn only won 7 games during the regular season, but was dominated by the top teams in the conference.  After the regular season was over Auburn also lost three key members of their team.  RB Michael Dyer was kicked off the team, DC Ted Roof left for a DC job at Central Florida, and OC Gus Malzahn left to be the HC at Arkansas State. 

If year three was a downer, this current year is flat out depressing for Tigers fans.  Currently the Tigers are 1-7 and haven't won a game in the SEC.  Their only win was against Louisiana Monroe and they had to go to OT to do that.  They should win two more games (New Mexico State and Alabama A&M) but a 3-9 record isn't going to sit well in the SEC.  One of the biggest issues that Chizik has had at Auburn is not getting talent in there.  Sure there are good players on their roster, but they are few and far between. 

It is uncertain if Chizik will lose his job or not.  You'd think that National Championship would by him some time.  But in the SEC patience wears thin.  Auburn's administration could see that outside of the year that Cam Newton and Nick Fairley were there, the Tigers have underachieved.  It's truly amazing what a dominant player can do for a team.

What happened to....

Mountain West Conference
Do you remember when the Mountain West was at one point the 5th best conference in college football ahead of the ACC and the Big East.  Utah and TCU had made it to BCS games while BYU and San Diego State were up and coming teams.  Boise State (who was a regular in the top 10) was set to join in 2011.  With the likes of those teams the Mountain West was beginning to get into the discussion of possible becoming  BCS Automatic Qualifying conference.

However 2011 was the year the conference started to fall apart.  Utah got an invitation to the Pac 10 and left.  BYU was upset that they didn't get invited and went independent.  Boise State still joined, but without BYU and Utah the conference didn't have the same star power.  TCU added to the teams leaving when they got an invite to the Big East and agreed to leave (but ended up in the Big 12 instead).  In an effort to strengthen the conference, the Mountain West added Fresno State, Utah State, and Hawaii.  Both those teams aren't TCU, Utah, and BYU. 

Looking at the Mountain West this year and you can see that the conference is down compared to what it is.  Boise State is still the cream of the crop, but they are down this year.  San Diego State  hasn't had the same success that they did when Brady Hoke was there.  What makes matters worse is that Boise State and San Diego State will be leaving for the Big East in a couple of years.

What will come of this conference then?  Sure can't count on Fresno State and Utah State to carry the BCS buster torch.


How about....

Sun Belt Conference
For the longest time the Sun Belt was a conference that a lot of teams laughed at.  Normally when BCS level teams scheduled Sun Belt teams it would be an easy win that they didn't have to even worry about.  It was also a place where young coaches went to die.  You rarely ever saw programs dip into the Sun Belt to get their next coach.

But things are changing.  The Sun Belt is no longer a laughing matter.  Just look at Louisiana-Monroe.  They were the early talk of the college football season with a win over Alabama and near wins over Auburn and Baylor.  Western Kentucky even knocked off Kentucky.  Looking at the current standings Western Kentucky and Louisiana-Monroe are already bowl eligible.  Arkansas State and Middle Tennessee State are a win away.  Troy and Louisiana-Lafayette have great shots at 6 wins.  When was the last time this conference had 4 teams bowl eligible?

Another area of strength in the Sun Belt is the coaching.  No longer are coaches afraid to lead these schools and BCS schools are considering these coaches.  Just look at Hugh Freeze.  He went from Arkansas State to Ole Miss.  Other coaches that will likely be hot names include:  Gus Malzahn (Arkansas State), Todd Berry (Louisiana-Monroe), Dan McCarney (North Texas), Mario Cristobal (FIU), Mark Hudspeth (Louisiana-Lafayette), and Willie Taggart (Western Kentucky). 

It's safe to say that the Sun Belt is on the rise and with all the talent that is in the south, these schools have the potential to keep getting better.


Player Spotlight


Kevin Minter 
Height:  6'2
Weight:  242
School:  LSU
Year:  JR
Position: LB

Minter broke into the starting lineup as a sophomore in 2011 and has never looked back.  With all the talent that is on the LSU defensive line, Minter doesn't necessarily get a lot of attention.  But with all the talent Minter has, it's beginning to be hard to ignore him.  In their game against Florida it really showed the type of player Minter really is.  Against a heavy Florida running attack, Minter finished with 20 tackles, 3 tackles for a loss, 2 sacks, and a forced fumble.  Minter is at his best when he is playing downhill to stop the run.  He hits like a freight train and makes you pay for it.  He can shed blocks well and get to the ball carrier.  Minter has good speed and lateral quickness, but has some struggles in coverage.  Minter reminds me a lot of former LSU LB Kelvin Sheppard who is with the Buffalo Bills right now.  However Minter is probably a better athlete and football player. 

Friday, October 26, 2012

College Kickoff (Week 9)

Games of the Week

#16 Mississippi State Bulldogs (7-0) at #1 Alabama Crimson Tide (7-0)
For both teams this might be the toughest team they'll both have faced.  Alabama has had a tougher schedule, but they have been blowing everybody out.  Mississippi State is also undefeated but their toughest game was Tennessee.  The winner of this game will control their own destiny and be atop the SEC West standings.  Can Mississippi State's offense score enough points on Alabama's defense to win the game? Or will Alabama assert their dominance over a Bulldog team that won against lesser competition? One thing is for sure, we'll know for sure how good Mississippi State is after this one.
Prediction:  Mississippi State 13 Alabama 35


#4 Florida Gators (7-0) vs #14 Georgia Bulldogs (6-1)  In Jacksonville
Florida is riding high after consecutive wins over South Carolina, LSU, and Texas A&M while Georgia is looking to prove that the South Carolina loss was just a fluke.  A win here would practically give the winner the SEC East Title if they continue to win out.  Florida has made their success behind a good defense and a power running game.  But that could play into Georgia's hand because the strength of their defense is up the middle.  The key to this game could be the play of Georgia QB Aaron Murray.  If he can get the Bulldog offense going, they have a great shot to pull the upset.  But they can't afford to get down big early like they did against South Carolina. 
Prediction:  Florida 17 Georgia 10


#23 Texas Tech Red Raiders (6-1) at #5 Kansas State Wildcats (7-0)
Both of these teams are coming off blowout wins over West Virginia and looking to stake claim to the lead in the Big 12.  You would think that this would be a shootout because of how good each offense is playing.  But lost in all of that, both defenses are actually playing at a high level too.  Will Texas Tech be able to slow down Kansas State's rushing and Heisman front runner Collin Klein?  Can Kansas State's secondary slow down the Red Raider passing attack?  I have a feeling the defense that makes the biggest play will win this game.
Prediction:  Texas Tech 20 Kansas State 34


#3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (7-0) at #8 Oklahoma Sooners (5-1)
Even with the two SEC games this week, this is the game of the week.  Both teams are in the hunt for the National Title and need to win this game to stay in the race.  This will be a battle between the Irish Defense vs the Oklahoma offense.  The winner of this battle will win the game.  The Irish defense has played as one of the best in the nation.  Their front 7 is playing at a high level and have the ability to shut down the Sooner running game.  If there is a weakness it could be the Irish secondary.  QB Landry Jones has improved, but at this point can you trust him in a close game?  If Notre Dame's defense can keep playing well and the offense can run the ball like they did against BYU they can win this game.  Oklahoma will need a big game from Landry.  They go as he goes.
Prediction:  Notre Dame 21 Oklahoma 20


#22 Michigan Wolverines (5-2) at Nebraska Cornhuskers (5-2)
The winner of this game basically wins the Legends Division.  Michigan right now is undefeated in Big 10 play while Nebraska's only conference loss is to Ohio State.  Nebraska under HC Bo Pelini has struggled against mobile QBs and in last year's meeting the Huskers defense struggled to contain Dennard Robinson.  If the Huskers defense can contain him like they did Kain Colter last weekend they should do well.  Another thing to remember is that the game is played in Lincoln at night.  Nebraska has won their past four night games in Memorial Stadium and overall are pretty tough to beat in that environment. 
Prediction:  Michigan 42 Nebraska 31

Coaching Hot Seat

Jeff Tedford, California
Career Record:  82-52
8 Bowl Appearances
Tedford has been a coach whose seat has been getting warmer every year.  Tedford came to Cal with the reputation of being a QB guru.  He tutored the likes of Trent Dilfer, David Carr, Akili Smith, and Joey Harrington.  Things started out good for Tedford.  In his first year he took them from one win to seven.  From 2003-2006 the Bears won at least 8 games and even were ranked #2 at one point.  He was even Pac 10 coach of the year twice.  A big reason for the success early on was due to the ability to get top flight talent into the program.  Aaron Rodgers, DeSean Jackson, and Marshawn Lynch are just a few of the top players he's had. 

Things started to change in 2007.  That season they started off 5-0 but ended up losing 6 of their last 7 games and finished with a 7-6 record.  Also in 2010 they only won 5 games.  Coincide the amount of talent that has come to Berkely hasn't been the same.  Tedford has also lost some of his best coaches/recruiters to other schools. 

With all of this, the program has grown stale over the plast couple of years and there really doesn't seem to be any real impact players on the roster.  They are 3-5 on the season so far and they'll be lucky to make it to 5 wins.  With this downturn paired with Stanford and USC being top flight teams and UCLA on the move up could result in Cal administration feeling like they need to do something.


What happened to....

Florida International Golden Panthers
If you checked out my preseason rankings, you'd see that I had FIU at #24.  Any why not.  They just came off an 8-5 year and were starting to play some really good football under HC Mario Cristobal.  The returned 17 or 22 starters with 10 of them being defense.  They were poised to roll through the Sun Belt and have a legit shot at an undefeated season. 

However this season has been a giant failure.  After losing their opener against Duke, FIU looked to get things back on track with a hard fought win over Akron.  However the Panthers have dropped their next 6 games and look to be settled into the last place in the Sun Belt.  The common thought that having to replace their starting QB and key pieces to the offense has been the issue.  But instead the defense (with 10 returning starters) has been the biggest concern.  The Panther defense is giving up an average of 37 points per game.  It's hard to win games when you have to score 40 points to win.

What's worse is that HC Mario Cristobal was a hot name in the coaching carousel.  He ended up turning down jobs to stay at FIU.  With a season like this, it could hurt his chances of getting the type of job he was being offered.


How about....

Duke Blue Devils
When you think of Duke we all think of their basketball team and how successful that program is.  The exact opposite can be found in the football program.  There has been some success throughout Duke's history, but most of us know them as being a yearly bottom dweller in the ACC standings. 

However things have changed this year.  Under HC David Cutcliff the Blue Devils leading the Coastal Division with a 3-1 conference record and are already 6-2 on the season.  Even if they don't win another game this season, the Blue Devils are already Bowl Eligible and will go to their first bowl game since 1994.  That's pretty remarkable for a team that had a 22 game losing streak in the middle of that stretch. 

The Blue Devils are lead by senior QB Sean Renfree who has really taken a big step forward this year.  Renfree has thrown for 1,793 yards and 11 TDs so far this season.  His two favorite options are senior Conner Vernon and sophomore Jamison Crowder.

It will be interesting to see where Duke goes from here.  They'll have two tough ones in a row with Florida State and Clemson, but end the season against Georgia Tech and Miami.  If they can win two or three of those games it will be a huge season for the Blue Devils.  But even if they go 0-4 a bowl game will be a great treat for this team and it's fans.


Player Spotlight


Jordon Poyer
Height:  5'11
Weight:  190
School:  Oregon State
Year:  Senior
Position:  Cornerback

One of the biggest reasons that Oregon State is having the success they are this year is the play of defensive standout Jordon Poyer.  Poyer who is a former safety who is only in his second true season as a cornerback.  Poyer is none for being a good athlete and his ability to match up with wide receivers and shadow them all over the field.  He has good ball skills and that has shown with his 5 INTs so far this year.  He even had 3 against Washington State, one of which he took back for 6 which sealed the game for the Beavers.  Poyer also returns kicks and punts for the Beavers. 

Tuesday, August 28, 2012

SEC Season Preview

West
1.  LSU Tigers (12-0, 8-0)
Don't let the dismissal of Tyrann Mathieu fool you.  The Tigers will be alright.  They are still loaded on defense.  The real key to their success will be the play of QB Zach Mettenburger.  If he can jump start this offense then the Tigers will be a favorite to make it back to the National Title game.  If not, it could be another season of relying on defense to win games.

2.  Alabama Crimson Tide (11-1, 7-1)
Not too often do you hav the defending National Champion not favored to win their own division.  But it's not really a knock on the Crimson Tide, mainly because of all the talent they lost on the defensive side of the ball.  However the Crimson Tide offense should be much better mainly because of the experience of QB AJ McCarron.  He continued development from game manager to playmaker will allow the Tide to be a contender once again.
3.  Arkansas Razorbacks (9-3, 5-3)
If it wasn't for HC Bobby Petrino losing his mind and getting fired, I'd be half tempted to put the Razorbacks at the #2 spot in this division.  They return stud QB Tyler Wilson and get back Knile Davis on offense and the defense continues to improve.  However Petrino's absence and the presence of John L. Smith is going to cost them a win at some point. 

4.  Mississippi State Bulldogs (6-6, 2-6)
Two years ago it looked like Mississippi State was an up and comer in the league.  However last year the Bulldogs just couldn't win the big one when they had a shot.  This year their toss up games are at home but they just lack the fire power to really take over.  Looks like another average year.

4.  Texas A&M Aggies (6-6, 2-6)
A&M has always been an underachiever in the Big 12, so their addition to the SEC doesn't look like it will lead to a lot of success.  Not only are they joining a new conference, but they are doing so with a new coaching staff.  Kevin Sumlin takes over and brings his air raid spread offense to the SEC.  We'll quickly find out if his system is that good, or just feasted off undermanded Conference USA defenses.

6.  Auburn Tigers (5-7, 2-6)
Oh how things have changed for Auburn since winning the National Title two years ago.  This past off season the Tigers had to replace both coordinators.  Ted Roof left to Penn State, but that was probably a mutual decision.  But the big loss is OC Gus Malzahn and his spread it out attack.  Chizik replaced him with Scott Loeffler who was Temple's OC last year.  Loeffler also brings a pro style attack to Auburn which is a pretty drastic change from Malzahn.  With all the changes and the lack of true playmakers this will be another long season for the Tigers who will be fighting just to become bowl eligible.

7.  Mississippi Rebels (4-8, 1-7)
Another year another basement finish projected for the Rebels.  This year they'll be trying to break out under new head coach Hugh Freeze.  Freeze returns (former assistant coach) to the Rebels after a successful season as the HC at Arkansas State.  It's going to be a tough one for Freeze, but the schedule isn't overly brutal and they get to host A&M and Miss State.  But if they make it to a bowl game, it's a big success.

East
1.  South Carolina Gamecocks (10-2, 7-1)
RB Marcus Lattimore returning from a knee injury is huge for the Gamecocks.  While he was out last year the offense became to one demensinal and QB Connor Shaw struggled at times.  Now Lattimore can help keep defenses honest and help the offense return to more of a balance attack.  Defensively South Carolina lost a ton of talent, but they've done a great job of stock pilling players so there shouldn't be too big of a drop off.  Expect a big year from Jadeveon Clowney.

2.  Georgia Bulldogs (10-2, 6-2)
I really want to put the Bulldogs up at the top of the East, but their lack of a running game makes me hesitant.  Otherwise they have it all.  Good experienced QB, talent at the skill positions, and an elite defense. Their defense is especially good with Jarvis Jones rushing the passer and creating havor.  But the key to their season will be developing a running game.  If not, it's likely a 2nd place finish here.

3.  Florida Gators (8-4, 5-3)
Is this going to be the year where all their raw talent comes together and we see Florida contending for an SEC Championship?  Or will we see another average year with losses to teams that they normally beat?  I'm leaning somewhere in the middle.  I don't see them becoming beating out Georgia or South Carolina, but they are much better than the Missouri's and Vanderbilt's. 

4.  Vanderbilt Commodores (7-5, 4-4)
Vanderbilt is one of my surprise teams.  Sure they won't go out and win the conference, but they will play much better than they did in previous years.  A big reason is their HC James Franklin.  Franklin has changed the culture at Vanderbilt and has a lot of positive energy around the program.  No longer are teams looking forward to playing the Commodores. 

5.  Missouri Tigers (6-6, 3-5)
It's understandable why Missouri left the Big 12 for the SEC.  Money and security.  But their football program will suffer because of it.  The Tigers were a constant threat to win the Big 12 North, but that was one weak division.  Even at their top success, they never won the conference.  Now they go into an even tougher conference and have to face off against elite defenses week in and week out.  Good luck Missouri, because your going to need it this year.

5.  Tennessee Volunteers (6-6, 3-5)
When your head coach is a the top of almost every hot seat article, you know your probably not in for a good year.  Things were looking good.  Tennessee returned starting QB Tyler Bray and had two top notch receivers for him to throw to.  But then Da'Rick Rodgers got booted from the team and took one of their only playmakers away.  But you  have to admire the guy for making tough decisions like that in a year he may lose his job.

7.  Kentucky Wildcats (4-8, 1-7)
It's a good thing Kentucky won the National Championship in basketball because that will take the sting away from Wildcat football.   That's if most Kentucky fans actually follow the football team.  All kidding aside it's going to be a long year.  They have to replace 11 of their 22 starters.  HC Joker Phillips will have to do his best coaching job if he wants a shot at his 5th season.

Preseason All Conference Team
QB:  Tyler Wilson, Arkansas
RB:  Marcus Lattimore, South Carolina
RB:  Christine Michael, Texas A&M
WR:  Justin Hunter, Tennessee
WR:  Cobi Hamilton, Arkansas
TE:  Phillip Lutzenkirchen, Auburn
OT:  Chris Faulk, LSU
OG:  Chance Warmack, Alabama
C:  Barrett Jones, Alabama
OG:  Larry Warford, Kentucky
OT:  DJ Fluker, Alabama

DE:  Sam Montgomery, LSU
DT:  Sharrif Floyd, Florida
DT:  John Jenkins, Georgia
DE:  Jadeveon Clowney, South Carolina
LB:  Jarvis Jones, Georgia
LB:  Nico Johnson, Alabama
LB:  Sean Porter, Texas A&M
CB:  Dee Milliner, Alabama
S:  Eric Reid, LSU
S:  Robert Lester, Alabama
CB:  Jonathan Banks, Mississippi State

K:  Caleb Sturgis, Florida
P:  Steven Clark, Auburn
RS:  Tre Mason, Auburn

Offensive Player of the Year:  Tyler Wilson QB Arkansas
Defensive Player of the Year:  Jarvis Jenkins OLB Georgia
Freshman of the Year:  Dorial Green-Beckham WR Missouri

Friday, November 4, 2011

Week 10 Pick Em

If you watch ESPN you would think that the only game that was on this weekend is the LSU/Alabama game. However there are some other good games this weekend that will help decide a lot of conference championships and impact the National Title race.

Week 10 Games

#20 Kansas State Wildcats vs #3 Oklahoma State Cowboys
Kansas State (who was exposed last week) doesn't get much of a break after facing Oklahoma last week and now facing Oklahoma State. KState had trouble with Oklahoma's offense, and the Cowboys is even better. If the Wildcats want to have a chance to win this game, they are going to have to play keep away. Because if they have to pass the ball, they are going to struggle. But that's easier said than done. Okie State should win this game going away.
Prediction: Kansas State 24 Oklahoma State 48

Northwestern Wildcats vs #8 Nebraska Cornhuskers
Nebraska was able to take advantage of a Michigan State team that was coming off two big wins.. But could they face the same fate to a pesky Northwestern team? I tend to think no. Northwestern isn't the same team that many thought they would be at the beginning of the season. And Dan Persa isn't the same QB since the Achilles injury. Add in that Nebraska runs a physical running offense that plays into Northwestern's weakness on defense. Northwestern will score on Nebraska, but this game should be one sided.
Prediction: Northwestern 21 Nebraska 42

Texas A&M Aggies vs #6 Oklahoma Sooners
If Texas A&M could hold onto a 2nd half lead, they very well could be undefeated and this game would be a match up of top 10 ranked teams. Instead they are 5-3 and facing an Oklahoma team that just blew out previously undefeated Kansas State. This should be a shoot out between two offenses that have a lot of fire power. You'd think that Oklahoma would have a big advantage here, but their defense is inconsistent and allowed Texas Tech to put up points and yards on them. The key is whichever team's defense decides to show up will determine the winner.
Prediction: A&M 31 Oklahoma 45

#10 South Carolina Gamecocks vs #9 Arkansas Razorbacks
Everybody is talking about LSU vs Alabama, and rightfully so. But nobody is talking about this game which features two top 10 ranked teams. South Carolina is looking to get back to their 2nd straight SEC Title Game, while Arkansas is hoping to still somehow sneak their way in. It is important for South Carolina that they get their star WR Alshon Jeffery back into the offense especially since they don't have Marcus Lattimore the rest of the season. But I'm really looking forward to seeing Arkansas' high powered offense matching up against South Carolina's defense that is loaded with talent. Whoever wins that battle will win the game.
Prediction: South Carolina 17 Arkansas 28

#7 Oregon Ducks vs Washington Huskies
Washington is a vastly improved team and their only losses are to #8 Nebraska and #4 Stanford. This is the same team that went win less a couple of years ago. They are much improved team that is relying on underrated RB Chris Polk and QB Keith Price. This is a popular upset pick for some, but I don't know if I can buy it yet. Oregon isn't the same team that went to the National Title game last year. Against Washington State they struggled for most of the first half before running up the score. If Washington can limit Oregon's big plays they should have a chance. But they just don't have the depth they need hang with this Ducks team.
Prediction: Oregon 49 Washington 28

#1 LSU Tigers vs #2 Alabama Crimson Tide
This has to be one of the most hyped games we've seen in the past 10 years. The thing is that it's justifiable. LSU and Alabama are clearly the two best teams and nobody else is really that close. The winner of this game is basically a shoe in for the National Title Game. Heck their is a chance that they could get a rematch in the National Title Game. This game showcases the two best defenses in the Nation. LSU defense is built on speed and they fly to the ball. Alabama's defense is full of 1st round NFL Draft talent that is very experience and is always at the right spot at the right time. The keys to this game are the two offenses. Whichever teams offense has a better game could be the team that wins. LSU has the more experienced QB, but Alabama has the best offensive player in Trent Richardson. Also don't forget this game is in Tuscaloosa. This game should be a dozy.
Prediction: LSU 20 Alabama 24

Standings
Last week I went 3-2 bringing my season record to 11-6. The two games I missed on were Nebraska upsetting Michigan State and Clemson getting stoned by Georgia Tech.

Saturday, October 1, 2011

Pick em! (Week 5)

With conference play starting today we are treated to several good games. Here is a look at who I predict will win. (Rankings are based off of the Football Warehouse Top 25)

#3 Alabama (4-0) at #14 Florida (4-0)
In what could be an early preview of the SEC Title game these long time rivals face off to start conference play. Alabama stout defense faces off against a rejuvenated Florida offense that has a ton of speed. It will be quite a match up between Florida OC Charlie Weis and Alabama HC Nick Saban. But this game will come down to the play of the Alabama offense. There will be a time where young QB AJ McCarron will have to make a completion on 3rd and long. How he plays in those situations will be whether Alabama wins or loses.
Prediction: Alabama

#10 Nebraska (4-0) at #6 Wisconsin
Its Nebraska's first game as a member of the Big 10 conference and they have a doozy against defending Big 10 Champs and #6 ranked Wisconsin. This will be a fun game to watch. This is the best Wisconsin offense in a long time and they are facing off against a traditionally strong Husker Backshirt defense. However the Blackshirts have struggled this year. The Nebraska offense will look to take advantage of the slower Badger defense. The Badgers will look to have Martinez beat them through the air, which isn't his strong suit. The key to this game will be if Nebraska's offense can put up points.
Prediction: Wisconsin

#11 Clemson (4-0) at #12 Virginia Tech (4-0)
After upsetting Auburn and then Florida State, the Clemson Tigers are one of the hottest teams in college football. However history has told us that Clemson doesn't handle success well and this is a game that they usually drop. However this year could be different. Clemson is loaded with good young talent and they have a defense that is very solid. However Virginia Tech is quietly off to a strong start behind the play of RB David Wilson. Clemson has the momentum going for them, but they have to face off against one of the best defensive minds in college football in DC Bud Foster.
Prediction: Clemson

Auburn (3-1) at #7 South Carolina (4-0)
I'd have to admit that Auburn has played better than I thought. However they still aren't a contender to win the SEC West. This game isn't a great match up for the Auburn Tigers. Their run defense is horrible and South Carolina has the best RB in the nation in Marcus Lattimore. Unless SC QB Stephen Garcia goes pick happy, the Gamecocks could roll.
Prediction: South Carolina

#13 Arkansas (3-1) vs #16 Texas A&M (3-1) (at Cowboys Stadium)
These former Southwest Conference rivals play for the second straight year at Cowboys Stadium. Last year the Razorbacks got the the win, now the Aggies are hoping to even the score this year. Both teams are coming off of losses and looking to bounce back. Both teams have good offenses, but A&M has the advantage with a better defense. I believe RB Knile Davis' absence (injury) will hurt the Razorbacks in this match up.
Prediction: Texas A&M


Upset Pick
#16 Texas (4-0) at Iowa State (4-0)
This is definitely an interesting game. Texas is looking to bounce back after missing a bowl last year, while the Cyclones are off to their best start in school history. Last year Iowa State was able to beat the Longhorns in Austin, and now host them in Ames. Iowa State is lead by QB Steel Janz who has a knack for 4th quarter comebacks. Texas is lead by QB Chase McCoy who has the offense humming after taking over for ineffective Garrett Gilbert. This should be a good one.
Prediction: Iowa State

Thursday, August 11, 2011

ACC Predictions

Atlantic
1. Florida State Seminoles, 10-2 (7-1)
Armed with a bunch of young talent and an favorable schedule the Seminoles have a great chance to make it back to a BCS Bowl for the first time since 2005. Athletic QB EJ Manuel takes over at quarterback. Manuel played well in relief of 1st round pick Christian Ponder when he was missed games last year. On defense Brandon Jenkins is a very dynamic pass rusher who will contend for defensive player of the year honors.

2. Clemson Tigers, 7-5 (5-3)
Clemson is one of those teams that is always a constant underachiever. Despite having a talented roster they are always coming up short. This year shouldn't be too different as they have to replace both Jarvis Jenkins and DaQuan Bowers. However on offense the Tigers have to replace veteran starter Kyle Parker (who left to play baseball for the Rockies) with sophomore Tajh Boyd. Boyd is very talented, but also very raw. He has some talent around him, but if he struggles to take control the offense could be in for a long season.

3. Maryland Terrapins, 7-5 (5-3)
A lot of people where thinking Mike Leach might end up in College Park as the replacement from Ralph Friedgen, but instead they got Randy Edsall from UConn which ended up being a very good choice too. Edsall turned UConn into a Big East Champion which is a very hard job to do. Edsall is a very good coach who is good at finding diamonds in the rough and developing them. If he can keep the talent from the Washington DC area he could very good things at Maryland. As for this year he'll be aided by talented QB Danny O'Brien who is one of the top QBs in the conference and safety turned linebacker Kenny Tate.

4. Boston College Eagles, 6-6 (4-4)
This is not a bad Boston College team, but their schedule is brutal. They got the short end of the stick and have both VaTech and Miami on the road. However BC does have one of the best defenses in the ACC which will give them a shot in every game. Montrell Harris is a top flight running back, but uncertainty at QB will be their downfall.

5. North Carolina State Wolfpack, 6-6 (4-4)
NC State enjoyed 9-4 season last year and were poised to improve on it with returning QB Russell Sheppard coming back for his senior season. However HC Tom O'Brien decided he was finally done with Sheppard going back and forth between baseball and the football team. O'Brien basically kicked Sheppard off the team in favor of Mike Glennon who he has compared to Matt Ryan. O'Brien better be right, because if Glennon stinks up the joint and Sheppard leads Wisconsin to the Big 10 title. There are going to be some unhappy people in Raleigh.

6. Wake Forrest Demon Deacons, 3-9 (1-7)
In 2006 Wake Forrest shocked many by winning the ACC Title and playing in a BCS Bowl game but ever since that game their have slowly been going down hill. It looked like Wake was going to be a yearly player in the ACC, but as the years pass its more like those years were just a flash in the pan. This year shouldn't be too different. They do return 17 starters, but they got a tough ACC schedule which won't help out.

Coastal
1. Virginia Tech Hokies, 10-2 (6-2)
Under Frank Beamer the Hokies have been a mainstay a top the ACC. This year should be no different. Logan Thomas and David Wilson will be the leaders of the offense and help replace the production of Tyrod Taylor and Ryan Williams. But we all know that the Hokies are lead by their defense and special teams. Bud Foster has another solid defense that should allow Virginia Tech to take home another Coastal Division Title.

2. Miami Hurricanes, 9-3 (5-3)
With the recent news that Hurricane players accepted illegal gifts and services that could affect some players eligibility. But its too early to speculate on who if anybody would have to sit out games, so this projection is assuming nobody will be suspended. New HC Al Golden was very successful turning Temple from a laughing stock into a consistent bowl team. The Canes are not the team that they use to be in the 80's, 90's, and early 2000's but the talent level is better than previous years. The QB spot is up for grabs. Jacory Harris was once a Heisman candidate, so if he can regain his old form they could challenge Virginia Tech for the division title. But that may be easier said than done. Look for the Canes to be a better team, but they are still a couple of years away from making an impact.

3. North Carolina Tar heels, 8-4 (5-3)
The amount of talent that has come out of this Tar Heel program has been amazing. But its more amazing is the general lack of success in terms of wins and losses. Sure they've made it to bowl games but they haven't made it to a single ACC Championship Game. This year should be very interesting. The Tar Heels have to replace a lot of talent that went to the NFL and have to deal without having Butch Davis who was fired right before fall camp. However they still have a ton of talent on defense and are lead by DEs Quinton Coples and Donte Paige-Moss. If they can get some production out of QB Bryn Renner they could end up having a good season, otherwise it could be a long season in Chapel Hill.

4. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, 6-6 (4-4)
After winning the ACC in 2009 they fell off and finished last year under .500, including a very bad loss to Kansas. Don't look for a big improvement this year. GT has to replace three year starter at QB in Josh Nesbitt and RB Anthony Allen. However another year under Paul Johnson's triple option could soften the losses.

5. Virginia Cavaliers, 6-6 (2-6)
Virginia is one of those schools that always seems to produce a 1st round pick every year, but never seems to put it all together. But 3rd year HC Mike London has the Cavaliers on the upswing. They return 18 starters from last years team and had a very good recruiting class coming in. Look for Virginia to make a run at being bowl eligible for the first time in a couple of years.

6. Duke Blue Devils, 3-9 (0-8)
David Cutcliff is a very talented coach, but Duke is just such a hard place to win at. He has improved the roster, but it is still going to be a rough season in Durham. Sean Renfree is a very talented QB, but a lack of talent around him will really show. At best they might win a game or two in the conference, but don't count on it.

Offensive Player of the Year: EJ Manuel QB Florida State
Defensive Player of the Year: Quinton Coples DE North Carolina
Freshman of the Year: Mike Bellamy RB Clemson
Coach of the Year: Jimbo Fisher, Florida State


All ACC Team
QB: EJ Manuel, Florida State
RB: Montrel Harris, Boston College
RB: David Wilson, Virginia Tech
WR: Dwight Jones, North Carolina
WR: Jarrett Boykin, Virginia Tech
TE: Dwayne Allen, Clemson
T: Andrew Datko, Florida State
G: Brandon Washington, Miami
C: Dalton Freeman, Clemson
G: Joe Looney, Wake Forrest
T: Blake DeChristopher, Virginia Tech

DE: Brandon Jenkins, Florida State
DT: Marcus Forston, Miami
DT: Brandon Thompson, Clemson
DE: Quinton Coples, North Carolina
LB: Zach Brown, North Carolina
LB: Luke Keachly, Boston College
LB: Kenny Tate, Maryland
CB: Jayron Hosley, Virginia Tech
S: Ray Ray Armstrong, Miami
S: Rashard Hall, Clemson
CB: Chase Minnifield, Virginia

K: Dustin Hopkins, Florida State
P: Ryan Quigley, Boston College
KR/PR: Tony Logan, Maryland