Heisman Watch (Final)

The regular season is over and bowl games have been announced. This means the Heisman Trophy Presentation is a couple of days away. Earlier this week I put out what my ballot would look like, but here I will give my final prediction on who will bring home the hardware. This is my third year projecting the award. So far I've successfully predicted the top 3 each year. Will the streak continue? Let's find out!

1. Robert Griffin QB Baylor
Season Stats: 3998 yards Passing 36 TDs 644 yards rushing 9 TDs
Robert Griffin's Heisman Stock has been like a roller coaster. After a dominant performance against TCU in the opening game, RG3 was the hot name and an early season favorite. But after losses to Kansas State and Texas A&M he fell out of contention, even though he was still putting up eye popping stats. Griffin rose back up the boards with dominating games against Oklahoma and Texas. RG3 accounted for over 4,500 yards and 45 TDs. But what is more remarkable is that Griffin has lead long time doormat Baylor to 9 wins and a 2nd consecutive Bowl Game. And that bowl game was almost a BCS game. Bet you never thought Baylor would ever contender for a BCS game. Not only has Griffin been the most exciting player this season, but he has done so carrying a team without many weapons. RG3 has been the best player this year and deserves the Heisman Trophy.

2. Andrew Luck QB Stanford
Season Stats: 3170 yards passing 35 TDs

Going into this season it was no surprise that Andrew Luck was the favorite. And why not? He has helped transform Stanford into a Pac 12 contender and was coming off of a dominating Orange Bowl Victory. Luck also has a squeaky clean image and is a lock to be the #1 pick in the 2012 NFL Draft. What isn't to like? This season has not been a disappointment. Despite the fact that Stanford's offense is a run based offense, Luck has still put up over 3,000 yards and 35 TDs in helping the Cardinal to a 1 loss season and 2nd straight BCS Bowl appearance. The problem is that Luck really hasn't wowed anybody. He is good, but everybody knows that. And even though they are 11-1 they didn't win their conference and lost against their best opponent. But if Griffin didn't have a huge game against Oklahoma I could be talking about Luck winning.

3. Trent Richardson RB Alabama
Season Stats: 1583 yards rushing 20 TDs 327 yards receiving 3 TDs

In a crowded Heisman Race every opportunity matters. If Alabama made it the SEC Championship Game, it could have given Trent Richardson one last opportunity to state his case for the Heisman. Instead he had to sit back and watch Robert Griffin dominate Texas and stake claim to the Trophy. But Richardson did all he could with the games he was able to play. He rushed for over 1,500 yards and accounted for 23 TDs. Richardson was basically the only offense for the Crimson Tide and his play this year has allowed Alabama to find themselves back in the National Title game for a rematch against LSU. But we could have our first Title Game without the Heisman Trophy winner playing in it.

4. Monte Ball RB Wisconsin
Season Stats: 1759 yards rushing 32 TDs

When you rush for over 1,700 yards and have 38 total TDs that you would be a favorite for the Heisman Trophy. However that isn't the case for Monte Ball. Ball has had a monster season for Wisconsin, but really isn't getting much love. Sure he is a finalist. But he doesn't realistically have a shot at winning. You would have to assume that voters feel that his production this year is a by product of the Wisconsin system and their mammoth elite run blocking line. And much like spread QBs getting the "system QB" label, the Wisconsin RBs get the same treatment. That's too bad because with all the 2 RB systems and spread passing offenses, we might not see another season like this.

5. Tyrann Mathieu CB/PR LSU

Season Stats: 70 tackles, 1.5 Sacks, 2 INTs, 6 FF 5 recovered (2 for TDs), and 2 Punt Returns for TD

Tyrann Mathieu here reminds me of Ndamukong Suh two years ago. Mathieu wasn't as dominant as Suh was in 2009, but because of his play this year he deserves every bit of attention he has gotten. Mathieu is a big game player. In all of their top games, Mathieu has made his mark. Against Oregon he returned fumbles for TDs. Against Arkansas and Georgia he returned punts for TDs. He was LSU's best player and LSU is the best team in college football right now. Without him they might have a loss or two. Mathieu has been the best defensive player and the most impactfull.

Heisman Watch (My Ballot)

Over the course of the season I've used the Heisman Watch to predict who the voters will pick to be the winner of the Heisman Trophy. Now I'll still put out my last edition of the Heisman Watch later this week. But I felt this would be a great time to share my opinion. On this version of the Heisman Watch I'll provide my ballot if I had an actual vote (maybe someday).

1. Robert Griffin QB Baylor
Season Stats: 3998 yards Passing 36 TDs 644 yards rushing 9 TDs
Going into this season not a whole lot of people knew about Griffin. And those who did know about Griffin knew him as a tremendous athlete who could run all around defenses. But this year we've seen Griffin transform himself into a complete QB. RG3 threw for nealy 4,000 yards and 36 TDs while still rushing for 644 yards and another 9 TDs. Griffin has just been flat out amazing. Griffin has carried the Baylor Bears to an unbelievable 9 win season and their second straight bowl game appearance. Even in their three losses, Griffin had played very well. Griffin has been the best player in the nation and has had to do it with not even close to the best talent around him.

2. Tyrann Mathieu CB/PR LSU

Season Stats: 70 tackles, 1.5 Sacks, 2 INTs, 6 FF 5 recovered (2 for TDs), and 2 Punt Returns for TD
It's safe to say that many people didn't know about the "Honey Badger" before the season, but it didn't take long for everybody to get familiar with him. Against Oregon in the opening game, Mathieu was all over the place and had a huge fumble recover for TD. That became a stable for Mathieu. Whenever LSU needed a big play he made one. Against Arkansas when they were down 14-0 Mathieu returned a punt for TD to get the momentum going. He did the same thing against Georgia in the SEC Title Game. Mathieu didn't play any snaps on offense, but he was LSU's biggest weapon and was clearly the best defensive player this season.

3. Trent Richardson RB Alabama
Season Stats: 1583 yards rushing 20 TDs 327 yards receiving 3 TDs

Richardson was a contender at the beginning of the season do to the fact that he was the a dynamic running back on an Alabama team that was going to challenge for a National Championship. It also helped that Richardson was no longer a part of a RB rotation and was the only reliable threat for the Crimson Tide. Richardson didn't disappoint. With teams focusing solely on him Richardson was able to still rush for over 1,500 yards and score 20 times. Even against LSU, Richardson accounted for 160 yards. He has clearly been the best RB in the nation and one of the best offensive players in the nation.

4. Andrew Luck QB Stanford
Season Stats: 3170 yards passing 35 TDs

Luck was a heavy favorite going into the season and he hasn't disappointed. Luck is considered to the best player in the nation and a likely #1 overall pick in the next NFL Draft. Stanford doesn't have the same talent that most top 10 programs. However without a dynamic receiver Luck has had to rely on a collection of TEs to throw the ball to. He's done very well. Stanford has only lost 1 game this year and that was to a very good Oregon team. But Luck hasn't put the stats and impact that others have had. Luck is still a great player, but he hasn't been the best this year.

5. Monte Ball RB Wisconsin
Season Stats: 1759 yards rushing 32 TDs

Russell Wilson has gotten a lot of the hype, but Monte Ball has been the real star for the Badgers. His nearly 2,000 yards and 32 TDs are flat out good. Behind their powerful offensive line, Ball has been hard to contain and provided a consistent offensive threat that has allowed Wisconsin to make it to a second straight Rose Bowl appearance. But what hurts Ball is that even me could get 1,000 yards behind that offensive line. It was a great season for Ball, but I can't put him ahead of Trent Richardson who has done it against better defenses. And Richardson is only 3rd on my ballot.

Heisman Watch (Week 13)

1. Andrew Luck QB Stanford
Last Week: 20/30 233 4 TDs 1 INT vs Notre Dame (28-14) Next Week: vs TBA

Comments: Andrew Luck's 4 TD passes helped him surpass John Elway's record for the most career TDs passes in Stanford's History. It wasn't the end that Luck wanted, but he sure did his best to try and impress voters. Luck has thrown for 3,170 yards this year and 35 TDs. Not too bad of a season considering that Luck doesn't have any elite weapons on offense and having a run based attack. Luck is clearly the best QB in the Nation and might be the best player this year overall. What helps Luck is that nobody else has really stood out on a consistent basis. And they may feel that Luck is the best and vote him the winner. He just has to hope that Griffin, Keenum, or Ball don't have great games next week.

2. Trent Richardson RB Alabama
Last Week: 27 carries 203 yards 1 receiving TD vs Auburn (42-14) Next Week: vs TBA
Comments: Without the luxury of having the SEC Title Game to enhance his stock, Richardson had to do his best here in the Iron Bowl. Richardson sure did that. He rushed for 203 yards and added a receiving touchdown to boot. Richardson has enjoyed a very good season. It was memorable, but will it last in voters memory two full weeks? It's hard to say. But he has rushed for 1583 yards and 20 TDs and been the only consistent offense on one of the best teams in the Nation. Add in that Alabama will probably be playing in the National Title Game, that could only enhance his chances.

3. Robert Griffin QB Baylor

Last Week: 7/11 106 yards 1 TD 14 carries 62 yards 2 TDs vs Texas Tech (66-42) Next Week: vs Texas
Comments: After a great performance in their come from behind upset win over Oklahoma, Griffin was looking to continue his Heisman momentum into their game against Texas Tech. However Griffin didn't even make it to halftime. He took a huge hit and suffered an apparent concussion. RG3 wanted to go out and finish the game, but the doctors wouldn't let him. That ended his day, but at least it didn't' end his season. But he still does have one more game against a Texas team that has name recognition. But if RG3 wants to win this award. He needs to have a monster game and some memorable moments.

4. Case Keenum QB Houston
Last Week: 33/46 457 yards 5 TDs vs Tulsa (48-16) Next Week: vs Southern Miss
Comments: In their final regular season game before the Conference USA Championship the Cougars were in prime contention for a let down game. However Keenum had none of that. Against a good Tulsa team, Keenum threw for 457 yards and 5 TDs. Those stats only strengthen Keenem's chances at winning the award. But some will question the level of competition Keenum has played against. But one thing that Keenum has that Luck or Richardson doesn't have is a conference championship game. If Keenum can blow out a good Southern Miss team, he could sway a few voters. But it's a long shot at this point.

5. Monte Ball RB Wisconsin
Last Week: 25 carries 156 yards 4 TDs vs Penn State (45-7) Next Week: vs Michigan State
Comments: In a battle to see who goes to the Big 10 Title Game, it was Monte Ball and Wisconsin that manhandled the Nittany Lions and punched their ticket to the inaugural Big 10 Title Game. Ball was way too much for Penn State to handle. His 156 yards and 4 TDs adds to his total of 1622 yards and 29 TDs. But for some reason, he isn't getting any Heisman hype. But that could change if he dominates Michigan State in the Title game and gives the voters a lasting impression.