Wednesday, June 4, 2014

2011 NFL Draft Lookback

1.  Carolina Panthers:  Cam Newton QB Auburn
Newton has had success leading the Panthers to the Divisional Round of the playoffs and made a Pro Bowl. However the jury is still out, Newton has all the physical tools and looks to be putting it together, but needs to take that next step.  But Newton is arguably the best quarterback in this class so taking him was worth it.
Grade:  B+

2.  Denver Broncos:  Von Miller OLB Texas A&M
Denver needed to add a play maker to their defense and they nailed it here with Miller.  Ever since he stepped onto the field he's used his elite speed and quickness to cause havoc.  He rated as the top 4-3 OLB this past season according to Pro Football Focus this past season and has been a multi-time Pro Bowler. The only knock on him has been his suspensions for performance enhancing drugs.
Grade:  A+

3.  Buffalo Bills:  Marcel Dareus DE Alabama
Going into this draft the Bills wanted to shore up their run defense and Dareus has helped them do that.  He's one of the best run stoppers in the league.  Dareus ability to play in both the 3-4 and the 4-3 has helped since he's played both schemes in Buffalo.  The only negative is that Dareus is facing some very serious off field charges this offseason.
Grade:  A

4.  Cincinnati Bengals:  AJ Green WR Georgia
Green came in as the best wide receiver prospect since Calvin Johnson and hasn't disappointed.  He's a touchdown machine and has played at a All Pro level since day one.  He looks to be one of the best receivers in the game today. Cincinnati nailed this pick.
Grade:  A+

5.  Arizona Cardinals:  Patrick Peterson CB LSU
Everybody knew Peterson was a special athlete, but some wondered if he'd be a corner or a safety.  Not only has Peterson proved that he can play corner back, he's shown that he has the making to be one of the best corner backs in the league.  Add in his elite punt return ability and the Cardinals have one of the best players in the league.
Grade:  A+

6.  Atlanta Falcons:  Julio Jones WR Alabama
It was quite the bold move for Atlanta to trading up form #21 to here to take Jones.  It was even more risky with Jones having a stress fracture in his foot leading up to the draft.  However the gamble paid off and Jones looks to be one of the great young receivers in the league.  If he can stay healthy (missed most of this past season) this will be a genius pick.
Grade:  A+

7.  San Francisco 49ers:  Aldon Smith OLB Missouri
On the field Smith has been great for the 49ers.  He's a dynamic pass rusher whose 42 sacks in three years is nothing short of amazing.  However the big issue is his behavior off the field.  He's had two DUI charges, weapons issues, and the imfamous bomb issue at an airport.  These off the field issues could lead to him being cut from the team which is sad considering how much talent he'd be wasting.  But there were red flags before the draft, so the 49ers had to know at least a little bit.
Grade:  A-

8.  Tennessee Titans:  Jake Locker QB Washington
After seven great picks we finally get our first dud.  Locker was once considered to be the #1 pick in the 2010 class but really struggled in his senior year.  Instead of looking at Locker's poor season and accuracy issues they reached for him hoping to get their QB of the future.  He's been widely inconsistent his first three years and will get one final year to prove that he should be their QB.  But it's looking like another top 10 bust, especially with Kaepernick being a second round pick
Grade:  F

9.  Dallas Cowboys:  Tyron Smith OT USC
It was quite the risk taking Smith who only played RT at USC to be the Cowboys LT of the future.  Another risk paid off as Smith has emerged as one of the best left tackles in the league.  He graded this past year as the fifth best tackle in the NFL and his athletic ability has made him great for their zone blocking scheme.
Grade:  A

10.  Jacksonville Jaguars:  Blaine Gabbert QB Missouri
This was a pick that was bound to fail as soon as they traded up with the Redskins.  Gabbert had the look of an NFL QB but played in a wide open spread offense and really struggled with phantom pass rush rattled him.  His inability to read defenses and struggling with any bit of a pressure got him benched and traded to San Francisco for a 6th round pick.  Another enormous bust.
Grade:  F

11.  Houston Texans:  JJ Watt DE Wisconsin
Remember that Watt was a two star recruit to started his college career at Central Michigan as a tight end. Now Watt is one of the most feared defensive lineman and the building block for the Texans.  Watt is a do everything defensive end.  Easily one of the best defensive players in the NFL and a contender for DPOY every year.
Grade:  A+

12.  Minnesota Vikings:  Christian Ponder QB Florida State
A major reach at the time looks even worse three years later.  Yeah Ponder helped the Vikings to the playoffs in his second year but that was more Adrian Peterson than anything Ponder did.  Ponder struggled in year three and was benched in favor of Matt Cassell.  With the Vikings taking Teddy Bridgewater in the 2014 Draft it will be only a matter of time before he is cut.
Grade:  F

13.  Detroit Lions:  Nick Fairley DT Auburn
Best player available is the philosophy the Lions have used and that shows here with them taking Fairley a year after taking Ndamukong Suh the previous year.  Fairley has shown glimpses of the dominance he showed at Auburn, but he's been marred with the same personal fouls and boneheaded plays he also had at Auburn.  With a new regime in Detroit Fairley's option hasn't been picked up and they could look to part ways when his contract is up.
Grade:  B

14.  St. Louis Rams:  Robert Quinn DE North Carolina
Quinn fell this far mainly because he didn't play his final year at North Carolina for taking improper benefits. Quinn's career started off slow but he's gotten increasingly better each year with this past season him tallying 19 sacks this past season.  He was the Pro Football Writers Defensive player of the year and arguably the best young defensive end in the NFL.  Well worth the gamble.
Grade:  A+

15.  Miami Dolphins:  Mike Pouncey C Florida
Needing some help along the offensive line the Dolphins landed a their center of the future.  Pouncey has started since day one and even made the Pro Bowl in his second year.  All that is why he remains on the team despite being a key member in the Jonathan Martin bullying scandal.  Good centers are hard to come by, so when you can get one you go for it.
Grade:  A-

16.  Washington Redskins:  Ryan Kerrigan DE Purdue
All questions on how Kerrigan would translate to the 3-4 were answered immediately.  Not only did Kerrigan contend for the Defensive Rookie of the Year in his first year, but went to the Pro Bowl in year two.  This past season he still tallied 9 sacks despite tearing his meniscus early in the season. Kerrigan hasn't been an elite player, but Justin Houston is the only player taken after him that has come close to him.
Grade:  A

17.  New England Patriots:  Nate Solder OT Colorado
The eventual replacement for Matt Light, Solder had the raw skills to be a stud but lacked a ton of experience.  However having a year to fill in and watch Light and Vollmer really did wonders for him.  Solder took over his second year and the Patriots haven't skipped a beat.  Despite not making a Pro Bowl yet, he's been rock solid and graded out as the 9th best tackle this past season.
Grade:  A+

18.  San Diego Chargers:  Corey Liuget DT Illinois
It would have been easy to say that the Chargers should have gone with Cameron Jordan instead of Liuget. However even though they are both labeled as DEs they play different positions.  Liuget hasn't been as dominant, but he's still developing and along with Kendall Reyes has given the Chargers two studs along their defensive line.  His second season was his best when he was only out done by JJ Watt when it comes to 3-4 DEs.  A solid pick here.
Grade:  B+

19.  New York Giants:  Prince Amukamara CB Nebraska
Prince was thought to be a steal here with his size and athletic ability he could have easily gone in the top 10. However it hasn't been smooth sailing for Amukamara.  He's been solid and regular starter but injuries and inconsistent play has plagued him throughout his three year career. However Prince has been great against the run which has likely saved his starting spot.  But this is going to be a big year for him to prove that he deserves an extension.
Grade:  B

20.  Tampa Bay Buccaneers:  Adrian Clayborn DE Iowa
A big versatile end, Clayborn came in with a bunch of promise.  However he's been a big disappointment for the Bucs.  As a rookie he wasn't bad, but a knee injury cut his second year short.  While this past season he had six sacks but struggled throughout the season.  But with the team adding Michael Johnson this off season it looks like Clayborn's days are numbered.  It's safe to say that Clayborn needs a bounce back year.
Grade:  C

21.  Cleveland Browns:  Phil Taylor DT Baylor
After trading down from the sixth pick the Browns end up taking a nose tackle with Taylor missing out on a ton of talent they could have had if they stayed.  Taylor has been alright, but he's not a great run stuffer you would like by taking one in the first round.  Most teams can get guys like him in the middle rounds.  Could you imagine JJ Watt, Aldon Smith, or Julio Jones on the Browns?
Grade:  D

22.  Indianapolis Colts:  Anthony Castanzo OT Boston College
Protecting the quarterback was a big need for the Colts with Peyton Manning and now Andrew Luck. Castanzo has been only average as a pass blocker giving up 20 sacks in his past three years.  But he's a much better run blocker which fits the Colts new offensive scheme.  You would want better out of your first round pick, but he's been the third best tackle in this draft (3rd taken), so it's hard to really fault this pick.
Grade:  B

23.  Philadelphia Eagles:  Danny Watkins G Baylor
What an epic failure this pick has been for the Eagles.  It was a reach on draft night and looks even worse for the Eagles with Watkins only making it two years on the roster.  He's now a backup for the Miami Dolphons.  Watkins struggled transitioning from tackle to guard and with his inexperience playing football didn't help.
Grade:  F

24.  New Orleans Saints:  Cameron Jordan DE California
Early in Jordan's career he started at DE in the Saints 4-3 defense and was solid but not spectacular.  He was great against the run but still raw rushing the passer.  He did tally 8 sacks in this second year, but wasn't great.  However when Rob Ryan came on board and switched to the 3-4, Jordan blossomed into one of the NFL's best 3-4 DEs and had 14 sacks.
Grade:  A

25.  Seattle Seahawks:  James Carpenter OT Alabama
Under Pete Carroll the Seahawks' first round picks usually are viewed as good values but fits for their schemes.  Carpenter's athletic ability looked to translate to their zone blocking scheme, however Carpenter has been a complete bust.  He's struggled every year and the only reason he's still on the roster is he can play multiple positions along the offensive line.
Grade:  F

26.  Kansas City Chiefs:  Jonathan Baldwin WR Pittsburgh
What looked like a great pick to pair with Dwayne Bowe has turned out to be a giant bust. Whether it was fighting his teammate during the preseason of his rookie year or only having 607 total yards receiving and just two touchdowns in his career.  He was traded to the 49ers after his second season and for a team that needed a deep threat bad he wasn't able to make any difference.
Grade:  F

27.  Baltimore Ravens:  Jimmy Smith CB Colorado
Going into the draft Smith was right there with Prince Amukamara battling for the #2 CB spot behind Patrick Peterson.  If it wasn't for some off the field issues, Smith could have gone higher.  Now Smith hasn't been terrible in his three years, but hasn't be great either.  He only has 4 career interceptions and hasn't graded out well, but he's made plays when he had to and was big in the Super Bowl vs the 49ers that helped the Ravens win it.
Grade: B

28.  New Orleans Saints:  Mark Ingram RB Alabama
Looking to improve their running game, the Saints traded back into the first round to get the physical back out of Alabama.  Ingram was a part of a three or even four man backfield and had some success, but was never really able to beat out Pierre Thomas.  He's barley over 1,000 in his career and the Saints decided not to pick up his additional year option which means he'll likely be a free agent if he doesn't have a monster year this season.
Grade:  C

29.  Chicago Bears:  Gabe Carimi OT Wisconsin
For a team that had huge issues protecting Jay Cutler, taking Carimi was thought to be a great pick. However a horrible knee dislocation in the second game of his rookie season really took away his athletic ability.  His second year he struggled at right tackle and was moved to guard at the end of the season.  After the season was over he was traded to the Buccaneers where he was cut after the year and is now with the Falcons.  His injury really derailed what could have been a good career.
Grade:  D+

30.  New York Jets:  Muhammad Wilkerson DE Temple
It's hard to find a better value than Wilkerson here.  In his three year's he's played as one of the best players in this draft and is a big reason the Jets have had such a good defense the past couple of years.  He was graded by Pro Football Focus as the second best 3-4 DE in his second year and was in the top 10 last year. His 18.5 career sacks are pretty impressive for the position he plays.
Grade:  A+

31.  Pittsburgh Steelers:  Cameron Heyward DE Ohio State
Like most Steelers picks they get quality players.  Heyward has been solid since joining the starting lineup during his second year.  He's gotten better each year, but as a 3-4 defensive end he isn't in the same category as Liuget, Jordan, or Wilkerson.  Getting a long term starter in the first round is nice, but you rather see them get an impact player.  That's why it's a B and not an A.
Grade:  B

32.  Green Bay Packers:  Derek Sherrod OT Mississippi State
For a team that has as much success as the Packers do without a good offensive line is amazing.  A big part of that is missing on picks like Sherrod.  Unfortunately Sherrod had a nasty leg break in the preseason of his rookie year and hasn't been able to bounce back.  He's only played 121 snaps in his career so far and likely is a backup for the rest of his career.
Grade:  D

Notable non first round picks
#35:  Cincinnati Bengals:  Andy Dalton QB TCU
#36:  San Francisco 49ers:  Colin Kaepernick QB Nevada
#43:  Minnesota Vikings:  Kyle Rudolph TE Notre Dame
#58:  Baltimore Ravens:  Torrey Smith WR Maryland
#64:  Green Bay Packers:  Randall Cobb WR Kentucky
#70:  Kansas City Chiefs:  Justin Houston OLB Georgia
#71:  Dallas Cowboys:  DeMarco Murray RB Oklahoma
#77:  Tennessee Titans:  Jurrell Casey DT USC
#99:  Seattle Seahawks:  KJ Wright OLB Mississippi State
#102:  Cleveland Browns:  Jordan Cameron TE USC
#129:  Denver Broncos:  Julius Thomas TE Portland State
#148:  Oakland Raiders:  Denarious Moore WR Tennessee
#154:  Seattle Seahawks:  Richard Sherman CB Stanford
#242:  Seattle Seahawks:  Malcolm Smith OLB USC

Best Value:  Richard Sherman (Seattle) at #154 (5th Round) is an All Pro and one of the best corner backs in the league in the 5th round.

Worst Value:  Jake Locker (Tennessee) at #8 , Blaine Gabbert (Jacksonville) at #10, and Christian Ponder (Minnesota) at #12 with Dalton and Kapernick going in round two.

Best Class:  San Francisco.  They got four starters (Smith, Kaepernick, Culliver, Miller) out of this draft including their franchise QB in Kaepernick while Aldon Smith is one of the best pass rushers in the league.  They also got two very good backups in Daniel Kilgore and Kendall Hunter.

Worst Class:  Jacksonville.  For a second straight year the Jaguars had the worst class and it's shown in them having two horrible years back to back seasons.  Not only did they whiff on Gabbert in the first round, they moved up to get him sending away their 2nd round pick.  The only redeeming pick is Cecil Shorts who will be their slot WR and the only player still on their roster.

Overall Summary:  After a very strong 2010 class, this draft just doesn't have the same appeal.  13 of the 32 first round picks made at least one Pro Bowl and there are some elite players that came out.  But this draft is very top heavy with the top 9 out of the top 11 picks being top level talent.  However if your going to remember anything about this draft it might be the three reaches at QB in the top 12.  Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, and Christian Ponder were all overdrafted and all three are or will be replaced.  

Friday, May 9, 2014

2014 2nd Round Mock

33. Houston Texans: Derek Carr QB Fresno State
34. Washington Redskins: Ra'Shede Hageman DT Minnesota
35. Cleveland Browns: Marqise Lee WR USC
36. Oakland Raiders: Allen Robinson WR Penn State
37. Atlanta Falcons:  Kyle Van Noy OLB BYU
38. Tampa Bay Buccaneers:  Xavier Su'a-Filo G UCLA
39. Jacksonville Jaguars:  Piere Desir CB Lindenwood
40. Seattle Seahawks:  Stephon Tuitt DE Notre Dame
41. Buffalo:  Morgan Moses OT Virginia
42. Tennessee Titans:  Jimmy Garrappolo QB Eastern Illinois
43. New York Giants:  Kony Ealy DE Missouri
44. St. Louis Rams: Lamarcus Joyner S Florida State
45. Detroit Lions:  Terrence Brooks S Florida State
46. Pittsburgh Steelers:  Louis Nix NT Notre Dame
47. Dallas Cowboys:  Jeremiah Attaochu DE Georgia Tech
48. Baltimore Ravens:  Austin Seferian-Jenkins TE Washington
49. New York Jets:  Jace Amaro TE Texas Tech
50. Miami Dolphins Dolphins:  Phillip Gaines CB Rice
51. Chicago Bears:  Tim Jernigan DT Florida State
52. Arizona Cardinals:  Demarcus Lawrence OLB Boise State
53. Green Bay Packers:  Davante Adams WR Fresno State
54. Philadelphia Eagles:  Stanley Jean-Baptiste CB Nebraska
55. Cincinnati Bengals:  Kareem Martin DE North Carolina
56. San Francisco 49ers:  Cody Latimer WR Indiana
57. San Diego Chargers:  Joel Bitonio OL Nevada
58. New Orleans Saints:  Marcus Martin C USC
59. Indianapolis Colts:  Gabe Jackson G Mississippi State
60. Carolina Panthers:  Cyrus Kouandjio OT Alabama
61. San Francisco 49ers:  Keith McGill CB Utah
62. New England:  Carlos Hyde RB Ohio State
63. Denver Broncos:  Chris Borland LB Wisconsin
64. Seattle Seahawks:  Bruce Ellington WR South Carolina

2014 1st Round Review

1.  Houston Texans:  Jadeveon Clowney DE South Carolina
For the longest time this was projected to be the pick and despite some late talk of trading down or taking Khalil Mack we saw Clowney be the pick.  Clowney will play the OLB position, but lets not kid ourselves, teams are prominently in the nickel defense and Clowney will be playing in a four man front.  They made the right decision here.
Pick Grade: A+

2. St. Louis Rams:  Greg Robinson OT Auburn
It was no secret that the Rams were going to add an offensive lineman at some point and Robinson was the favorite by many.  He's still a little raw, but that shouldn't matter because it looks like he'll start at guard and give them a fierce run blocker to open up holes for Zach Stacy.  He's their LT of the future.
Pick Grade:  A+

3.  Jacksonville Jaguars:  Blake Bortles QB UCF
Surprising pick here considering the elite talent still on the board.  However it's a QB league and if you like somebody you usually take him.  Word is Bortles wasn't going to last long so hard to blame the Jags for pulling the trigger.  However Sammy Watkins is special and the second tier QBs are right there with Bortles in my opinion.
Pick Grade:  B+

4.  Buffalo Bills:  Sammy Watkins WR Clemson
There was plenty of talk of the Bills moving up, but I thought it would have been for one of the offensive tackles.  But to be able to get one of the four best players in this draft and give EJ Manuel a true number one reciever is a smart move for a franchise that needs some excitement.  They better hope he makes an immediate impact because they gave up their first round pick next year to get him.
Pick Grade:  A

5.  Oakland Raiders:  Khalil Mack OLB Buffalo
For a franchise that has really messed up a lot of picks, they got this one right.  Mack was legitimately challenging Clowney for the top spot and to get him at five is a steal in my opinion.  He'll start day one for the Raiders as their SLB and play the Von Miller role in Dennis Allen's defense.
Pick Grade:  A+

6.  Atlanta Falcons:  Jake Matthews OT Texas A&M
All the talk leading up to the draft had the Falcons moving up, but instead they end up staying put and get the left tackle they need to protect Matt Ryan.  Matthews is as technically sound as they come and allows them to get bigger and more physical like they've done all off season.  Matthews may start at right tackle to begin his career but he'll be on the left side before you know it.
Pick Grade:  A+

7.  Tampa Bay Buccaneers:  Mike Evans WR Texas A&M
Personally I don't like this pick.  I seriously question Evans' ability to separate in the NFL and he has a high bust chance.  However the Bucs desperately need a second receiver to pair up with Vincent Jackson and many love Evans ability to go up and get the ball.  This also gives the Bucs two big receivers like McNown had in Chicago.
Pick Grade:  B

8.  Cleveland Browns:  Justin Gilbert CB Oklahoma State
Cleveland finally gets a quality CB opposite of Joe Haden which allows them to get really creative with blitzes and coverages.  Gilbert was my top rated cornerback and reminds me a lot of Antonio Cromartie.  Now this wasn't a sexy pick like a QB would have been, but it makes their defense even better which improves the team.  He also gives them a punt returner which is an added bonus.
Pick Grade:  A

9.  Minnesota Vikings:  Anthony Barr OLB UCLA
For some reason everybody kept thinking the Vikings were going to take Manziel despite Zimmer bashing him.  Instead they take a player that everybody was started to sour on even though he was a top 10 player for a while.  Barr's best football is still ahead of him and he gives defensive minded coach a player to move around and take advantage of his speed and athletic ability.  Love this pick
Pick Grade:  A+

10.  Detroit Lions:  Eric Ebron TE North Carolina
Even though I successfully projected this pick, I don't like it.  Detroit's offense is fine, but their defense has some enormous holes that could have been addressed with some good players here.  Instead of taking a safety like Ha'Sean Clinton-Dix they take an oversized slot receiver.  Ebron could develop into a good TE, but they Lions don't need him.
Pick Grade:  C+

11.  Tennessee Titans:  Taylor Lewan OT Michigan
So I get that Michael Roos is getting up there in age, but they just signed Micheal Oher to be their right tackle and have three good young interior lineman.  The line was one of the strong suites of this team.  So why take a lineman here when they could have taken a safety or cornerback here?  Don't be surprised to see Roos get cut in the coming days.  Otherwise the 11th overall pick will be a swing tackle.
Pick Grade:  D

12.  New York Giants:  Odell Beckham Jr WR LSU
The Giants are a team that you never really know where they are going to go, so when they took Beckham here it shouldn't have been too big of a surprise.  But with Hakeem Nicks gone and the fact that they love to play in three receiver sets it makes sense.  Beckham allows they to keep Cruz in the slot where he is lethal.
Pick Grade:  A

13. St.Louis Rams:  Aaron Donald DT Pittsburgh
Aaron Donald was thought to be a lock to go in the top 10 so when he falls here to the Rams it's a tremendous value.  The Rams already had one of the best defensive lines in the league, but didn't have much of a pass rush up the middle.  Now you add Donald to Robert Quinn, Chris Long, and Michael Brockers and that could be the scariest defensive lines in the league.
Pick Grade:  A+

14.  Chicago Bears:  Kyle Fuller CB Virginia Tech
Chicago has spent this off season working on rebuilding a once great defense.  They wanted to get bigger and more athletic and they do that with Fuller who has good size and length.  With Jennings and Tillman both over 30 and Tillman on a one year deal this was a no brainer.  They'll have those three on the field quite a bit.
Pick Grade:  A

15.  Pittsburgh Steelers:  Ryan Shazier LB Ohio State
I know there are a lot of Shazier fans, but I just don't see it.  Shazier is a very good athlete, but that is what he is to me.  He can run from sideline to sideline, but playing in the 3-4 he'll have to shed blocks.  Normally the Steelers let good players fall into their lap.  This time they reached on a guy in my opinion.
Pick Grade:  F

16. Dallas Cowboys:  Zach Martin G Notre Dame
Even though Johnny Manziel was sitting there, the Cowboys made the smart pick taking Martin.  He was graded out to be a top 10 player by many teams and this is a tremendous value considering they need a guard badly.  Martin has the potential to be a multiple time All Pro and fits their zone blocking scheme very well.  Smart pick by the Cowboys which you can't  say often.
Pick Grade: A+

17. Baltimore Ravens:  CJ Mosley LB Alabama
With two Alabama players sitting there we knew that Ozzie was going to draft one of them.  CJ Mosley is the top inside linebacker and gives the Ravens a stalwart in the middle of the defense.  He doesn't have Ray Lewis' physicality, but he is good in coverage and has some of the best instincts in a linebacker since Luke Kuechly. I'm not a huge fan of him, but a good pick here by the Ravens.
Pick Grade:  B+

18. New York Jets:  Calvin Pryor S Louisville
A lot of people, including me, that had Clinton-Dix higher than Pryor, but they are close so it isn't a big deal. Rex Ryan loves to play three safeties and adding him to Antonio Allen and Ed Reed and Ryan has some toys to play with.  Pryor also brings some physicality to the defense who can be an enforcer.
Pick Grade:  B+

19. Miami Dolphins:  Ja'Wuan James OT Tennessee
I feel the picks that I successfully pick are the ones that I'm hammering the most.  Miami wanted to add a RT in this draft because of a huge need.  But did they really have to reach on James?  He's not a bad player, but they could have easily gotten a better player here and a comperable player in the second round.  Clinton-Dix and Dennard would have been better value at just as important needs.
Pick Grade:  D+

20.  New Orleans Saints:  Brandin Cooks WR Oregon State
It's scary when one of the best offenses gets even better.  The Saints had to let Darren Sproles go because they needed to free up cap space and may have gotten a younger faster version of him.  Cooks doesn't have good size, but he has elite speed and quickness and is a nightmare in the open field.  He'll be moved all over the field and used to take advantage of mismatches.
Pick Grades:  A+

21.  Green Bay Packers:  Ha'Sean Clinton-Dix S Alabama
It's picks like this that allow teams like the Packers to be good year in and year out.  Clinton-Dix was seen as a top 15 player who teams passed on by reaching for other players while the Packers let him fall right into their laps.  They'll pair him up with Morgan Burnett and give the Packers two young dynamic safeties that will give teams fits.
Pick Grade:  A+

22.  Cleveland Browns:  Johnny Manziel QB Texas A&M
It was funny to watch everybody freak out when Manziel started to slide, but what did they expect?  He's a unfinished player who has a ton of talent, but isn't ready to start day one. But he's already brought excitment to Cleveland who have been seeing it in season ticket sales in just one evenring.  If he's allowed to sit for a year he could really succeed, but he'll likely be thrown into the fire too soon.
Pick Grade:  B+

23.  Kansas City Chiefs:  Dee Ford OLB Auburn
A curious pick for the Chiefs who have a big need at receiver.  Add that Marqise Lee was sitting there available many Chiefs fans aren't too happy about adding a third pass rusher.  Now Ford has a lot of talent, but I don't like the value here.  He just isn't as explosive as many people are giving him credit for.  They could have done much better with this pick. But should we be surprised with Any Reid?
Pick Grade:  C

24. Cincinnati Bengals:  Darqueze Dennard CB Michigan State
With Dennard falling this far it shouldn't have been a shock to see the Bengals take him.  They love to draft Big 10 players and love physical corners.  A big reason why Dennard fell to the mid 20s is he doesn't have good size or length which can hurt him when facing off against the tall receivers in the league.
Pick Grade: A

25.  San Diego Chargers:  Jason Verrett CB TCU
If Verrett was three inches taller he might have been the first cornerback taken.  However he is only 5'9 which caused him to fall.  But what Verrett lacks in size he makes up for in his tenacious play and coverage skills.  Pound for pound he is the best cover corner in this league.  Don't be surprised to see him get matched up against Wes Welker twice a year.
Pick Grade:  B

26.  Philadelphia Eagles:  Marcus Smith OLB Louisville
A lot of people are hammering the Eagles for this pick, but I like it.  I really fell in love with Marcus Smith when I did his scouting report when he showed the best explosion of any pass rusher I saw.  He still has some developing to do, but he was a quarterback when he came to Louisville.  He'll thrive in the Eagles 3-4 defensive and give them that pass rusher they're lacking.
Pick Grade:  A

27.  Arizona Cardinals:  Deone Bucannon S Washington State
Not too surprised that Bucannon went in the first round but mainly because the safety class isn't very deep and teams had to reach to get the top four guys.  Bucannon should be a good fit because he's a better at the strong safety position who getting paired with Tyrann Mathieu gives the Cardinals two play making safeties to go along with Patrick Peterson and Antonio Cromartie  and that's a scary secondary.
Pick Grade:  B

28.  Carolina Panthers:  Kelvin Benjamin WR Florida State
It's no secret that the Panthers needed receiver help, but surprised they took Benjamin here.  After getting a ton of hype after his game winning catch in the National Title game, Benjamin's average hands and lack of separation looked like he was going to slide.  I'm sure Cam wanted a big bodied receiver, but you have to wonder if the organizations past failures with USC receivers scared them off of Marquise Lee.
Pick Grade:  C

29.  New England Patriots:  Dommique Easley DT Florida
Curious pick for the Patriots because Easley has top 15 talent, but two torn ACL's is no joke. Easley has the talent.  He has a quick first step and is stout at the point of attack.  He can play DE and DT which the Patriots love.  Add in that they probably couldn't get him at their pick in the second and it makes sense why they reached on him.  But can you trust that he makes it back  to 100%?
Pick Grade:  C+

30.  San Francisco 49ers:  Jimmie Ward S Northern Illinois
After all the talk of them making a huge splash it was interesting to see them stand pat. They desperately need cornerback help but take a safety here, despite having Eric Reid and Antoine Bethea. But Ward is a very good in man coverage and has a cornerback's body.  He'll likely be their nickel back to starter out and could end up being a starter at CB because they like to play a lot of bracket coverage.
Pick Grade:  B+

31.  Denver Broncos:  Bradley Roby CB Ohio State
Denver is in win now mode and are going to look to find those final pieces to get them over the top.  Even after signing TJ Ward and Aqib Talib they still have issues in the secondary.  Roby had a bad junior season, but has the raw talent to be a first round pick.  Denver is taking the gamble that he'll take the next step and thrive in their system.  But I'm not buying it.
Pick Grade:  B+

32.  Minnesota Vikings:  Teddy Bridgewater QB Louisville
Much like last draft, the Vikings aren't afraid to move back into the first round to get a player they want.  They passed on a QB in the top 10, but get a guy that was once a lock to be the number one pick.  I still question Bridgewater's ability to play outside in cold weather, but he'll be asked to manage the offense and hand the ball off to Adrian Peterson.  But he's much better than anything they have already.
Pick Grade:  A

Thursday, May 8, 2014

Final 2014 Mock Draft

1.  Houston Texans:  Jadeveon Clowney DE South Carolina
Baring some team throwing the kitchen sink at Houston, the Texans will stay here and likely take Clowney. Even without being a good fit in the Texans defense, Clowney gives them the pass rusher they need.

2.  Atlanta Falcons: Khalil Mack OLB Buffalo
When it comes to the Falcons drafting we know that when Thomas Dimitroff wants a player he gets him. The Falcons need a edge rusher and since they can't get Clowney he'll get Mack who'll thrive in the Falcons 3-4 defense.

3. Jacksonville Jaguars: Sammy Watkins WR Clemson
Even if Mack was here I think they would have gone with Watkins.  They've add so many pieces on defense and need help on offense.  Add in GM David Caldwell stated Blackmon might not play this season and it makes this pick all the more likely.

4.  Cleveland Browns:  Mike Evans WR Texas A&M
The Mike Evans bandwagon is picking up steam and he's likely not going to fall past five.  Evans would complement Josh Gordon and give whoever their QB is a big receiver to throw the ball up to.

5. Buffalo Bills: Greg Robinson OT Auburn
Head Coach Doug Marrone wants to run the ball and would be estatic to get Robinson here.  But I think what happens is the Bills move up to get him if he falls past the sixth pick.  Robinson could start at right tackle as a rookie before eventually moving to LT.

6. St. Louis Rams: Jake Matthews OT Texas A&M
After the Raiders pick and now St. Louis passing up Greg Robinson you probably think I'm crazy.  However lets not forget that teams pick players they know. Head Coach Jeff Fisher's roommate at USC was Jake's dad who he also with Fisher in Houston and Tennessee for years.

7.  Tampa Bay Buccaneers:  Aaron Donald DT Pittsburgh
Let's not forget that Lovie Smith is running this team and he'll be able to get the guy he wants.  Yeah the Buccaneers have Gerald McCoy, but Donald and McCoy can play next to each other.  Lovie needs a disrupter out of the front four and Donald gives them that.

8. Minnesota Vikings: Justin Gilbert CB Oklahoma State
Don't see the Vikings taking a QB here at eight, they'll go after Zach Mettenburger in the second round. Instead look for new coach Mike Zimmer to look for a piece on defense. They'd love Mack and could chose Anthony Barr, but Gilbert could be too much to pass up to face off against the tall corners in the division.

9.  Oakland Raiders:  Taylor Lewan OT Michigan
There is word that the Raiders like Lewan the best over Matthews and Robinson.  I wouldn't be shocked if the Raiders took him at five, but they want to move down and should find a suitor if Robinson falls to that pick.

10. Detroit Lions:  Eric Ebron TE North Carolina
Under GM Martin Mayhew the Lions often go best player available and that could be Ebron here.  Even though the Lions have Pettigrew and Furia they don't do what Ebron can.  Look for Ebron to play the slot WR and help take pressure off of Calvin Johnson. 

11.  Tennessee Titans:  Anthony Barr OLB UCLA
With the Titans moving to the 3-4 under DC Ray Horton they need a pass rushing OLB badly.  Add in that former UCLA DC Lou Spanos is now on the Titans staff.  QB could be an option, but they could wait till round two.

12. New York Giants: Zach Martin OL Notre Dame
A draft full of surprises has another one with Martin going ahead of Taylor Lewan.  However the Giants will pass on Lewan because of off the field concerns. Martin will get a look at LT, but could end up being the solution at guard or even center for a team that loves to run the ball.

13.  New York Jets:  Odell Beckham Jr WR LSU
They missed out on the guy they wanted last year and won't let it happen again.  With adding Eric Decker they need somebody to complement the bigger receiver.  Beckham is an outstanding route running and gives whoever the QB is a much needed weapon.  

14. Philadelphia Eagles: Kyle Fuller CB Virginia Tech
I don't see the Eagles take a WR. If you remember Chip Kelly's teams at Oregon it was his RBs not the WRs that were the focal point of his offense.  Instead they'll go defense and Kelly wants tall athletic guys. They love Fuller and won't hesitate to move up to get him.

15. Pittsburgh Steelers: Darqueze Dennard CB Michigan State
Wide Receiver has been a hot pick for the Steelers, but with Beckham gone they likely wait till round two. Dennard is the top corner according to some teams and his physicality and playing style fits the Steelers mold.

16.  San Francisco 49ers:  Brandin Cooks WR Oregon State
There is a ton of talk of the 49ers moving up to make a big splash.  Word is they want Odell Beckham, but I see the Jets beating them out of him.  But that doesn't mean the 49ers won't sit back and wait.  Brandin Cooks gives them the deep threat they need to really open up their offense.

17. Arizona Cardinals:  Blake Bortles QB UCF
I've really come around on the Cardinals taking Bortles here.  One hand the Cardinals just missed out on making the playoffs, but Bortels fits what Arians likes in a QB and with Palmer having maybe one more year it could be a good thing to have Bortles sit and learn.

18. St. Louis Rams: Ha'Sean Clinton-Dix S Alabama
One thing we know about Jeff Fisher coached teams is they need to have good safety play.  TJ McDonald looks to be set at the strong safety spot, but what about the free?  Enter Ha'Sean Clinton-Dix who has the range to play deep in coverage or match up with tight ends and slot receivers.


19.  Miami Dolphins:  Ja'Wuan Jones OT Tennessee
I could really see the Dolphins moving down and taking Jones.  But if they can't move they could just take him here.  They need a RT after signing Brandon Albert and love Jones.  Personally I think it's a reach but they won't stop them.

20.  Baltimore Ravens:  CJ Mosley LB Alabama
Baltimore always ends up with somebody whose ranked higher and they fall into their lap.  That could happen here.  But trying to figure out who that is is going to be tough. Somebody will want to move up and then the Ravens can take Mosley who is a good value here.

21.  Green Bay Packers:  Ryan Shazier LB Ohio State
The Packers have long had a hole next to AJ Hawk and could fill that here with Shazier.  Shazier is a physical freak and teams love his ability to blitz and go sideline to sideline.

22. Chicago Bears: Calvin Pryor S Louisville
With Aaron Donald gone I don't see the Bears drafting a defensive tackle, prompting them to move down.  Safety has been a big issue for the Bears and they let Major Wright leave without a fight.  They'll give Conte another shot at the FS spot, but Pryor allows them to continue to mix their safeties back and forth like they did last year.

23.  Kansas City Chiefs:  Xavier Su'a-Filo G UCLA
Most people project a wide receiver to the Chiefs here and that could happen.  But as much as Reid loves to take receivers he loves taking lineman even more.   Remember when he took Danny Watkins a couple of years ago?  The Chiefs need a guard since Asamoah left in free agency.

24.  Cincinnati Bengals:  Bradley Roby CB Ohio State
With the need for a cornerback and the Bengals love for drafting Big 10 players this makes Roby a likely landing spot for the Bengals.  He'll compete with Terrence Newman and Adam Jones for the second CB spot opposite of Leon Hall.

25. San Diego Chargers:  Jason Verrett CB TCU
This pick could be a receiver or cornerback, but I believe a corner is a bigger need.  They did finish 29th in pass defense after all.  Some teams could shy from Verrett because of his size, but he could be the best cover corner in the draft.  Don't forget that the Chargers GM was with the Colts when they took Tim Jennings.

26. Cleveland Browns:  Derek Carr QB Fresno State
For all indications Carr is the Browns top choice at QB. They is a chance they take him with the fourth pick or even move down form there.  But with the QBs falling, they could still get him here.

27. New Orleans Saints:  Dee Ford OLB Auburn
Bringing in Rob Ryan has brought back the swagger for the Saints defense.  However they need help at outside linebacker and have shown a lot of interest with Dee Ford.  Ford has experience standing up and his athletic ability will come in handy.

28.  Carolina Panthers:  Joel Bitonio OT Nevada
For a team that was one of the best teams in the NFC to have this many holes is pretty remarkable. WR is a huge need, but they've made it clear that protecting Cam is top priority.  Cyrus Kouandjio could be a possibility, but Bitonio is a better prospect and has the athletic ability teams want out of tackles now.

29. New England Patriots:  Stephon Tuitt DE Notre Dame
This may be the prime spot for a team to move up and get a QB.  However if the Patriots stay here they could go many different ways.  But let's not forget that the Patriots love versatility.  They also need defensive tackle help and Tuitt can play DE or DT in any scheme.  Perfect Patriot player.  

30.  Dallas Cowboys:  Marqise Lee WR USC
All the talk of Manziel to the Cowboys doesn't really make a ton of sense since Jerry loves Romo.  Defense needs a ton of help, but Jerry loves offense and they could use another receiver to work the short to intermediate routes.  

31. Denver Broncos:  Ra'Shede Hagamen DT Minnesota
The Broncos pick could go anywhere and there is talk of them wanting to move up.  To get who is unknown, but they have been linked to Hageman quite a bit.  Hageman would be a good fit in that he gives them a player who can rush from the interior and play all over the line.

32.  Jacksonville Jaguars:  Johnny Manziel QB Texas A&M
I do think Manziel goes in the first round, but I think it's somebody that going to move up.  Jacksonville to me is the perfect fit because he translates well to their offensive system and head coach Gus Bradley comes from Seattle where he saw Pete Carroll thrive by letting guys be who they are.


Top 32 Prospects

1. Jadeveon Clowney DE South Carolina

2. Khalil Mack LB Buffalo

3. Jake Matthews OT Texas A&M

4. Greg Robinson OT Auburn

5. Sammie Watkins WR Clemson

7. Justin Gilbert CB Oklahoma State

8. Anthony Barr LB UCLA

9. Taylor Lewan OT Michigan

10. Aaron Donald DT Pittsburgh

11. Odell Beckham Jr. WR LSU

12. Brandin Cooks WR Oregon State

13. Darqueze Dennard CB Michigan State

14. Zach Martin OT Notre Dame

15. Kyle Fuller CB Virginia Tech

16. Eric Ebron TE North Carolina

17. Ha'Sean Clinton-Dix S Alabama

6. Tim Jernigan DT Florida State

18. Kony Ealy DE Missouri

19. Louis Nix DT Notre Dame

20. Dee Ford DE Auburn

21. Scott Crichton DE Oregon State

22. Gabe Jackson G Mississippi State

23. Mike Evans WR Texas A&M

24. Calvin Pryor S Louisville

25. CJ Mosley LB Alabama

26. Kelvin Benjamin WR Florida State

27. Kyle Van Noy LB BYU

28. Blake Bortels QB UCF

29. Lamarcus Joyner S Florida State

30. Stephon Tuitt DE Notre Dame

31. Jace Amaro TE Texas Tech

32. Ra'Shede Hageman DT Minnesota

Position Breakdown: Quarterbacks

1. Derek Carr (SR) 6'2 214 Fresno State
Analysis:  Strong arm to make all the throws. Quick release and good decision maker. Better athlete than he looks. Highly productive. Accuracy is an issue along with quality of competition.
Projection:  1st Round

2. Blake Bortels (JR) 6'5 232 UCF
Analysis: Protypical size.  Above average arm strength.  Good accuracy.  At his best when in the clutch.  Moves well within the pocket.  Played at a high level against best teams. Not a finished product.
Projection:  1st Round

3. Teddy Bridgewater (JR) 6'2 214 Louisville
Analysis:  Most NFL ready QB.  Above average arm strength.  Good accuracy.  Has good mobility within the pocket.  Small hands are a concern.  Lacks that true IT factor.
Projection:  Top 40

4. Johnny Manziel (RS SO) 5'11 207 Texas A&M
Analysis: Above average arm strength and accuracy. Playmaker.  Big questions about maturity and leadership.  Playing style and lack of size could lead to injury issues.  Classic boom or bust. 
Projection:  1st Round

5. Zach Mettenberger  (SR) 6'5 224 LSU
Analysis: Good arm strength. Average accuracy and touch.  Tends to under throw despite arm strength.  Played in Pro style offense. Poor mobility within the pocket. Torn ACL in final game.
Projection: Day 2 Pick

6.  Jimmy Garoppolo (SR) 6'2 226 Eastern Illinois
Analysis: Above average accuracy and touch with quick release. Moves well in pocket. Average arm strength. Small hands are a concern. Competition level and spread scheme are a concern.  Footwork is below average.
Projection:  Day 2 Pick

7.  AJ McCarron (SR) 6'3 220 Alabama
Analysis:  Above Average Arm Strength. Ball flutters instead of tight spiral. Above average accuracy. Below average mechanics. Throws off back foot. Average mobility. Proven winner.Good pocket presence.  
Projection: Day 2 Pick

8.  Aaron Murry (SR) 6'0 207 Georgia
Projection: Day 3 Pick

9. Tom Savage (SR) 6'4 228 Pittsburgh
Analysis:  Good arm strength. Average accuracy on intermediate to deep passes. Not a good decision maker, will force the ball. Average mobility within pocket. Underwhelming production.
Projection:  Day 3 Pick

10. Brett Smith (JR) 6'3 205 Wyoming
Projection: 5th Round

11. Logan Thomas (SR) 6'6 248 Virginia Tech
Projection: 6th or 7th Round

12. Connor Shaw (SR) 6'0 206 South Carolina
Projection: Undrafted

13. David Fales (SR) 6'2 212 San Jose State
Projection: Undrafted

14. Tajh Boyd (SR) 6'1 220 Clemson
Projection: 6th or 7th Round

15. Stephon Morris (SR) 6'2 213 Miami
Projection: Undrafted 

Position Breakdown: Running Back

1. Bishop Sankey (JR) 5'9 209 Washington
Analysis:  Tough runner who always looking for more yards. Above average balance. More quick than fast. Good speed to break the long run. Has fumbling issues.
Projection:  3rd or 4th Round

2. Carlos Hyde (SR) 6'0 230 Ohio State
Analysis:  Big bruising back. Average speed and quickness. Not going to hit many home runs. Can catch the ball out of the backfield. Doesn't break as many tackles as he should.
Projection:  Day 2 Pick

3. Lache Seastrunk (JR) 5'9 201 Baylor 
Analysis:  Explosive runner with good change of direction skill. Home run speed. Can take any run to the house. Lacks experience in passing game. Carries ball like a loaf of bread. Lacks ideal size.
Projection:  4th or 5th Round

4. Tre Mason (JR) 5'9 207 Auburn
Analysis: One cut runner. Very explosive. Hits the hole fast. Kick return ability. Isn't very elusive in the open field. Limited scheme fit. Lacks top end breakaway speed.
Projection: 4th or 5th Round

5. Jeremy Hill (RS SO) 6'0 233 LSU
Analysis: Big back with a downhill running style. Can factor in the passing game. Average speed, explosion, and quickness. Struggles to change directions. Goes down at first contact too often.
Projection:  Day 2

6. Ka'Deem Carey (JR) 5'10 207 Arizona
Projection: 4th or 5th Round
 
7. Charles Sims (SR) 6'0 214 West Virginia
Projection: 6th or 7th Round

8. James Wilder (JR) 6'3 232 Florida State
Projection: Undrafted

9. Terrence West (JR) 5'9 225 Towson
Projection: 5th or 6th Round

10. Storm Johnson (JR) 6'0 209 UCF
Projection: 6th or 7th Round

11. Andre Williams (SR) 5'11 230 Boston College
Projection: 5th or 6th Round

12. Dri Archer (SR) 5'8 173 Kent State
Projection:  3rd Round