Friday, November 2, 2012

College Football Kickoff (Week 10)

Games of the Week

#1 Alabama Crimson Tide (8-0) at #5 LSU Tigers (7-1)
This years game doesn't have the same feel as last year, but that was because LSU was also undefeated, instead of having one loss.  But the stakes are still the same.  Winner of this game "should" win the West and move on to the SEC Title Game.  Alabama so far has been the clear cut #1 team in the nation and hasn't really had a close game.  But the have to travel to Death Valley at night which is never easy.  If LSU wants to get the win here they are going to need a HUGE game from QB Zach Mettenberger.  They'll need him to make plays, not just manage to offense.  Defensively the Tigers can slow the Alabama offense but unless the defense can make some plays to put points on the board it could be a long night.
Prediction:  Alabama 20  LSU 10


Oklahoma State Cowboys (5-2) at #4 Kansas State Wildcats (8-0)
Oklahoma isn't ranked, but they are right on the cusp of the top 25.  They're looking to make a mark on the season and end Kansas State's magical season.  But if they are going to, they'll need to score a lot of points against a Wildcat defense that held West Virginia to 14 and Oklahoma to 19.  Defensively they'll have to make some plays because KState looks to wear defenses down with QB Collin Klein and RB John Hubert.  If Oklahoma State wants to win they'll have to get early 3 and outs to keep their guys fresh.  But that's easier said than down.  Just ask Oklahoma and West Virginia.
Prediction:  Oklahoma State 16  Kansas State 45


#2 Oregon Ducks (8-0) at #16 USC Trojans (6-2)
A week ago this game had more hype around it.  But that was before the Trojans dropped a game to Arizona to give them their second loss on the season.  You have to wonder how USC is going to handle Oregon's offense considering they struggled against an Arizona attack that isn't as good.  USC has struggled to stop the run and that is what the Ducks will do to you.  Add in that USC doesn't have a lot of depth along the defensive line and that could be a disaster keeping up with the Oregon fast paced attack.  But will Oregon's improved defense be able to slow down the USC receivers and running backs?  Oregon is favored to win on paper, but USC is out to prove that they are better tahn their record indicates.  Don't be surprised if you see an upset.
Prediction:  Oregon 49  USC 27


#19 Texas A&M Aggies (6-2) at #15 Mississippi State Bulldogs (7-1)
The big match up in the SEC West is in Baton Rouge, but this game in Starkville is just as important.  In this battle of surprise teams, the winner still has an outside shot at the West Division crown.  But they'll need some help to do so.  It will be fun to watch A&M's high powered offense match up with the veteran Miss State defense.  As we've seen so far, A&M will go as far as QB Johnny Manziel will take them.  In the games they've lost he's taken care of the ball and made plays.  When they lose it's because he has turned the ball over.  Miss State also hasn't face an offense that is as good as Texas A&M all year.
Prediction:  Texas A&M  31 Mississippi State  24

#21 Texas Longhorns at #23 Texas Tech Red Raiders
The last time that Texas and Texas Tech had a huge game against each other we got an amazing game with Michael Crabtree hauling in a TD pass in the closing seconds to give the Red Raiders the victory.  Will this game against top 25 teams yield the same results?  I don't know, but this game will still be intriguing and a battle to move into the 3rd spot behind Kansas State and Oklahoma.  Just when Texas QB David Ash started to really play well, he took a step back.  Is he going to be able to get it back against an improved Red Raider defense?  Will the Texas defense be able to slow down Tech's offense enough to give their offense a chance?
Prediction:  Texas 20  Texas Tech 34


Coaching Hot Seat

Gene Chizik
Record at Auburn:  31-17
Bowl Appearances:  3
To say that Gene Chizik's tenure at Auburn has been a roller coaster is an understatement.  Fans were unhappy that Auburn hired Chizik who had a 5-19 record at Iowa State prior to him coming to Auburn.  Many felt that there were better coaches out there and Chizik hadn't proved that he's worthy of this level of a job.  They felt that Turner Gill (former Buffalo HC) was more qualified and a better choice. 

Chizik answered a lot of critics with a National Championship season in his second year.  Lead by Heisman Trophy winning QB Cam Newton the Tigers went undefeated and winning a lot of close games in route to beating Oregon in the National Championship Game.  So it's hard to imagine how a coach who won a National Championship two years ago can already be on the hot seat.

It was year three where things started to slide.  Auburn only won 7 games during the regular season, but was dominated by the top teams in the conference.  After the regular season was over Auburn also lost three key members of their team.  RB Michael Dyer was kicked off the team, DC Ted Roof left for a DC job at Central Florida, and OC Gus Malzahn left to be the HC at Arkansas State. 

If year three was a downer, this current year is flat out depressing for Tigers fans.  Currently the Tigers are 1-7 and haven't won a game in the SEC.  Their only win was against Louisiana Monroe and they had to go to OT to do that.  They should win two more games (New Mexico State and Alabama A&M) but a 3-9 record isn't going to sit well in the SEC.  One of the biggest issues that Chizik has had at Auburn is not getting talent in there.  Sure there are good players on their roster, but they are few and far between. 

It is uncertain if Chizik will lose his job or not.  You'd think that National Championship would by him some time.  But in the SEC patience wears thin.  Auburn's administration could see that outside of the year that Cam Newton and Nick Fairley were there, the Tigers have underachieved.  It's truly amazing what a dominant player can do for a team.

What happened to....

Mountain West Conference
Do you remember when the Mountain West was at one point the 5th best conference in college football ahead of the ACC and the Big East.  Utah and TCU had made it to BCS games while BYU and San Diego State were up and coming teams.  Boise State (who was a regular in the top 10) was set to join in 2011.  With the likes of those teams the Mountain West was beginning to get into the discussion of possible becoming  BCS Automatic Qualifying conference.

However 2011 was the year the conference started to fall apart.  Utah got an invitation to the Pac 10 and left.  BYU was upset that they didn't get invited and went independent.  Boise State still joined, but without BYU and Utah the conference didn't have the same star power.  TCU added to the teams leaving when they got an invite to the Big East and agreed to leave (but ended up in the Big 12 instead).  In an effort to strengthen the conference, the Mountain West added Fresno State, Utah State, and Hawaii.  Both those teams aren't TCU, Utah, and BYU. 

Looking at the Mountain West this year and you can see that the conference is down compared to what it is.  Boise State is still the cream of the crop, but they are down this year.  San Diego State  hasn't had the same success that they did when Brady Hoke was there.  What makes matters worse is that Boise State and San Diego State will be leaving for the Big East in a couple of years.

What will come of this conference then?  Sure can't count on Fresno State and Utah State to carry the BCS buster torch.


How about....

Sun Belt Conference
For the longest time the Sun Belt was a conference that a lot of teams laughed at.  Normally when BCS level teams scheduled Sun Belt teams it would be an easy win that they didn't have to even worry about.  It was also a place where young coaches went to die.  You rarely ever saw programs dip into the Sun Belt to get their next coach.

But things are changing.  The Sun Belt is no longer a laughing matter.  Just look at Louisiana-Monroe.  They were the early talk of the college football season with a win over Alabama and near wins over Auburn and Baylor.  Western Kentucky even knocked off Kentucky.  Looking at the current standings Western Kentucky and Louisiana-Monroe are already bowl eligible.  Arkansas State and Middle Tennessee State are a win away.  Troy and Louisiana-Lafayette have great shots at 6 wins.  When was the last time this conference had 4 teams bowl eligible?

Another area of strength in the Sun Belt is the coaching.  No longer are coaches afraid to lead these schools and BCS schools are considering these coaches.  Just look at Hugh Freeze.  He went from Arkansas State to Ole Miss.  Other coaches that will likely be hot names include:  Gus Malzahn (Arkansas State), Todd Berry (Louisiana-Monroe), Dan McCarney (North Texas), Mario Cristobal (FIU), Mark Hudspeth (Louisiana-Lafayette), and Willie Taggart (Western Kentucky). 

It's safe to say that the Sun Belt is on the rise and with all the talent that is in the south, these schools have the potential to keep getting better.


Player Spotlight


Kevin Minter 
Height:  6'2
Weight:  242
School:  LSU
Year:  JR
Position: LB

Minter broke into the starting lineup as a sophomore in 2011 and has never looked back.  With all the talent that is on the LSU defensive line, Minter doesn't necessarily get a lot of attention.  But with all the talent Minter has, it's beginning to be hard to ignore him.  In their game against Florida it really showed the type of player Minter really is.  Against a heavy Florida running attack, Minter finished with 20 tackles, 3 tackles for a loss, 2 sacks, and a forced fumble.  Minter is at his best when he is playing downhill to stop the run.  He hits like a freight train and makes you pay for it.  He can shed blocks well and get to the ball carrier.  Minter has good speed and lateral quickness, but has some struggles in coverage.  Minter reminds me a lot of former LSU LB Kelvin Sheppard who is with the Buffalo Bills right now.  However Minter is probably a better athlete and football player. 

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